Today (January 25), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board. There were signs of rising at the beginning of the session, and they were quickly suppressed. The stock index showed a pulse downward pattern, which was close to the midday low and weak shock. From the disk perspective, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, the military industry and precious metal sectors bucked the trend, and the performance of airport shipping, tourism hotels and other targets was relatively resistant to decline. The other sectors were almost “green”, and the local profit-making effect plummeted.
Caixin securities mentioned that the most dangerous period of the market has passed, and there is no significant decline in the follow-up index for the time being. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the low willingness of capital transaction, it is difficult for track stocks, as a popular sector, to regain their upward trend in the short term. We expect that before the Spring Festival, the index will mainly go down slightly or fluctuate, and the gem index may tug at 2900-3200 points repeatedly.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] tourist hotel
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated, and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate a lot and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to the recovery rhythm of the industry lower than expected, the leading enterprises continue to open stores rapidly, the single hotels continue to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization continues to be verified. Looking forward to 2022, China’s hotel chain rate and industry concentration still have great room for improvement compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged, or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the recovery progress of China’s tourism has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still subject to many restrictions of epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the sector market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that in the short term, the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic, but China’s strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the development of therapeutic drugs, the trend of covid-19 influenza will not change, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. Under the action of demand recovery after the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate. []
[Topic 2] precious metals
COFCO futures mentioned that at present, the mainstream market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 50pb in March and four times in the whole year. The US dollar index rose last week, but failed to fully recover the decline of the previous week. The US bond yield was under pressure of 1.8 and fell slightly. Gold and silver were not affected by both. They rose for the second consecutive week, boosted by inflation, the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine and the general rise of commodities.
GF futures pointed out that under the influence of the epidemic, the supply chain in the United States continues to be limited, the recovery of the employment market is slow, the international oil price remains high due to the limited increase in production, and the Federal Reserve vigorously curbs high inflation. It is not ruled out that the interest rate will be increased by 50 basis points in March, and the scale contraction in the middle of the year may also rise further, pushing up the US bond interest rate.
Although the market tends to overestimate at the initial stage of the expected interest rate hike, the consumption of precious metals will be supported by the demand for important festivals in China and India at the beginning of the year. It is difficult to predict the impact of the geographical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. It is estimated that the risk of short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices will rise in resonance with the expectation of further tightening monetary policy by the global central bank, If there is no further hawkish signal at the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, gold may rebound further in the short term.
In addition, East Asia Qianhai Securities said that although facing the expectation of raising interest rates, the rising power of gold prices is still. First, the inflation level in the United States is at the highest level in 40 years, while the prices of crude oil and other commodities are still rising, so it is difficult to effectively solve inflation in the short term; Secondly, the US economy as a whole is improving, but it is still fragile. With the gradual tightening of US monetary policy, it is expected that the progress of economic recovery will slow down, and even downward risks will appear; Third, Comex gold futures has been adjusted for nearly 18 months, and the bad risk has been released to a certain extent. After the release of US employment data in December 2021, gold rebounded rapidly after only a short decline, indicating that the market has begun to digest the negative impact of interest rate hikes. []
[Theme 3] Airport
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the State Council issued the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan. The plan refers to improving the tourism opening system, promoting inbound tourism in an orderly distribution, gradually developing outbound tourism and continuously promoting tourism exchanges and cooperation on the premise that the global epidemic is effectively controlled. The 14th five year plan for tourism proposes to choose the opportunity to promote inbound and outbound tourism, which echoes with the focus on restoring the international market from 2023 to 2025 in the 14th five year plan for civil aviation. At the level of industrial policy, preparations have been made for liberalization. Of course, the decision-making level needs to weigh the pros and cons of liberalization. Once liberalization is selected, we believe that the loosening of China’s epidemic prevention policy and the comprehensive and effective opening of the country are carried out simultaneously with a high probability.
Since the outbreak, the supply expansion of civil aviation has been suppressed at a very low level. In 2022, when the short-term epidemic prevention policy is still in a high-pressure situation, the prosperity of civil aviation may still fluctuate. The introduction of aircraft fleet continues to be cautious and is expected to remain low for three consecutive years, while the theoretical demand continues to rise with economic growth. We believe that the gap between supply and demand of civil aviation theory is large. When China’s epidemic prevention policy is loosened and the door is restarted, the internal and external demand of civil aviation will recover, the supply structural pressure will be relieved, and the supply and demand will be reversed in an all-round way. In addition, the triple resonance of high seating rate, continuous fare reform and the release of backlog demand is expected to stimulate the substantial rise of ticket prices and the upward elasticity of civil aviation.
Expectations come first before the boom. We believe that after the emergence of vaccines and specific drugs at the same time, it is only a matter of time for mankind to overcome the epidemic. When a strong boom is expected, the share price of aviation stocks is likely to remain active.
We do not deny that the short-term prosperity of civil aviation may still be disturbed by the epidemic, but the prosperity of the industry is highly expected after the epidemic subsides completely. We believe that the boom brought by the reversal of supply and demand is industrial, and large and small airlines will fully benefit. From the perspective of valuation, Pb valuation of airlines is near the historical center, and there is still room for improvement. It is recommended to Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . []
[theme 4] military industry
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that in the medium term, as the second year of the 14th five year plan for equipment procurement, bidding is expected to be intensively implemented in 2022. With the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise. With the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform in 2022, the valuation system of military central enterprises may be reshaped, and the valuation improvement is expected. In the long run, the “Centennial goal of building the army” is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army and usher in the golden age of industry development.
Dongguan Securities said that looking forward to the whole “14th five year plan” period, the military industry sector has sufficient orders, and the basic logic of the industry has not changed greatly. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainties. As a key counter cyclical sector, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is improving with high certainty. Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and missile inventory replenishment are increased, and we are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that the current round of military industry market is far from over, and we should pay attention to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry. First of all, there is a big gap between the current situation of the Chinese army and the goal of a world-class army. The strategy of building a strong army has risen to a national strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the process of national defense modernization of our army has accelerated, and the procurement of advanced weapons and equipment is expected to accelerate in large quantities. Secondly, at present, the income of China’s military industry mainly depends on national financial investment, with significant planning characteristics. Under the background of the global economic downturn, the countercyclical attribute of the industry is obvious. Moreover, advanced military technology has great civil value, and the dual-use market has broad prospects. China’s aviation engine localization rate continues to improve. Driven by multiple demands such as advanced military aircraft train loading, replacement of existing fighters and domestic substitution of imported engines, the aviation engine industry chain is expected to continue to be prosperous. []
