In early trading on Tuesday, the three major A-share indexes fell across the board, and the Shanghai index fell below the 3500 point mark. As of midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3484.8 points, down 1.12%; Shenzhen composite index reported 13916.72 points, down 1.17%; The gem index was reported at 3023.47 points, down 1.08%.
At the same time, as the annual report disclosure window approaches, the performance of A-share listed companies also shows a trend of polarization: the performance of some companies has increased significantly, far exceeding the institutional expectations, and the share price has been capped; Some companies also experienced a sharp drop in performance, and the share price fell within the intraday limit or collapsed. Therefore, the performance explosion has become the biggest potential risk in the market this week.
the performance of online game leaders plummeted by 70%
A-share online game leader Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) which once became the leader of the concept of “meta universe” suddenly broke out a few days ago, and its performance plummeted by more than 70%.
The performance forecast was disclosed on the evening of Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) 21. It is estimated that the company’s net profit in 2021 will be 350 million yuan to 390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.81% to 77.40%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 100 million to RMB 120 million, a year-on-year decrease of 88.50% to 90.42%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit of Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) was 800 million yuan, which means that the company has suffered more than 400 million losses in the fourth quarter.
This performance surprised many securities companies that had pushed Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) .
According to the incomplete statistics of Shanghai Stock Exchange, 37 securities companies recommended Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) and gave profit forecasts. The consistent prediction value (i.e. arithmetic average) of the net profit attributable to the parent company in Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) 2021 by these securities companies was 1.395 billion yuan, and the lowest prediction was 1.2 billion yuan. in other words, Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) the actual net profit in 2021 is only a fraction of what the securities companies unanimously predicted.
As soon as the performance announcement was made, the share price of Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) fell. The limit was closed yesterday and retreated more than 3% again this morning.
the performance of new energy concept stocks was lower than expected
In addition to Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , new energy concept stocks Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) and Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) issued performance forecasts respectively yesterday, and their performance is far from the previous institutional forecasts.
The performance forecast was released on Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) 24. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2021 will be 5.6 billion yuan to 5.8 billion yuan. Previously, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and other leading securities companies have given more radical target price forecasts.
Among them, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) predicts that the net profit of Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) in 2021 will be 7.24 billion yuan, giving the company 20 times PE valuation in 2022, raising the target price to 91 yuan and maintaining the “buy” rating.
In early trading today, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) shares opened sharply lower and fluctuated at a low level. As of noon, they closed at 49.75 yuan / share, down 6.71%.
In addition, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) disclosed yesterday that the performance forecast shows that the company expects to make a profit of 280 million yuan to 420 million yuan in 2021. Previously Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) and Guosheng securities gave the company a net profit of 765 million yuan and 601 million yuan in 2021. Even according to the net profit ceiling of 420 million yuan, the profit of Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) 2021 is about 30% to 50% different from that predicted by securities companies.
This morning, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) opened at the limit price, and then the sentiment of killing and falling recovered. As of noon, it closed at 34.88 yuan / share, down 5.37%.
why does the profit forecast deviate greatly?
The annual report quarter of each year is a period when listed companies are intensively subject to market review. For ordinary individual investors, it is indeed difficult to predict the profits of listed companies, but for professional seller research institutions, it is unreasonable to give a profit forecast that is far from the actual situation.
In the data in the following table, there are 20 companies whose annual net profit (lower limit) in 2021 is quite different from the average value of net profit predicted by securities companies before.
Looking back on the previous research reports of securities analysts, it is not uncommon for analysts to be “slapped in the face” because the profit forecast is mostly high and the annual report must be lowered every time.
According to the authoritative data of from the perspective of analysts’ profit forecast of Shanghai stock exchange companies in 2020, among the 633 companies with profit forecast, the average deviation between profit forecast and actual deviation at the beginning of the year exceeded 70%, and the average deviation between profit forecast and actual deviation in the middle of the year was nearly 50%. Until the dust of achievement was settled at the end of the year, the relevant deviation value was reduced to less than 30%.
Insiders said that the characteristics of A-share unilateral market are obvious, and the small scale of short selling market directly leads to the lack of sufficient audience for analysts’ “sell” reports; At the same time, the current profit model of securities analysts determines that they earn money from commissions of fund companies and other institutions, rather than money from sales research reports, which may be the main reason for the optimistic profit forecast of the above institutions.
