On January 25, the A-share market fell sharply again and showed a general decline in individual stocks. The transaction volume of the two cities has been enlarged, and the northward capital has turned into a net outflow of 3.5 billion yuan after several days of continuous net inflow. Industry sectors all fell, consumer services, transportation and banking fell less, while media, coal and computers led the decline.
Huaxia Fund: fermentation of risk events, not too pessimistic
According to the analysis of Huaxia Fund, external risks are still the main reason for market adjustment, especially the recent escalation of the crisis in Ukraine. Globally, investors' risk aversion has increased significantly, and the regional crisis situation is affecting the prices of major assets including Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , industrial metals, stocks and bonds in the short term, which also has a negative impact on the risk appetite of the A-share market.
"Although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, we believe that the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited. Judging from the nature, the probability is similar to the decline at the end of February 2021 and the beginning of March 2020, and the sustainability will not be particularly strong." Huaxia Fund expects that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound.
In terms of investment opportunities, Huaxia Fund believes that under the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to see improvement in the first quarter, and the power investment and new energy chain, real estate infrastructure industry chain and digital economy related to steady growth will still be relatively prosperous. After substantial adjustment, the allocation cost performance has been significantly improved, and the future market can be more optimistic.
noan Fund: adjusted by four factors, market sentiment is expected to repair in the future
Noan fund commented that the decline in market changes today was caused by factors outside China, including four factors:
1. European and American stock markets experienced a huge earthquake overnight, and the NASDAQ index stabilized after a sharp decline of 5%. However, China US stock futures still fell sharply on Tuesday, mainly due to the proximity of the FOMC meeting on January 27 and the market's concern that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would be tightened too quickly. At the same time, the media reported that the tension in Ukraine has become a direct fuse to further suppress risk appetite. Asia Pacific stock markets also fell today, and funds going north also began to turn into net outflow.
2. The credit default risk of real estate enterprises still puzzles the market.
3. Market expectations on the strength of steady growth policies.
4. The latest fourth quarter report of public funds last year showed that the overall position of institutions was on the high side. Although the positions of some popular tracks were reduced, the overall position was still biased. Although the field of "manufacturing growth" experienced some adjustments, the problem of relatively high stock price and valuation has not been obviously solved. In the short term, there is a lack of catalyst. Under the background of low overall risk appetite of the market, Still facing some adjustment pressure.
"Looking forward to the future, we expect that the above-mentioned emotional factors may still inhibit the market performance near the Spring Festival, but in the future, with the continuous introduction of 'steady growth' policy details, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China's growth, the market sentiment is also expected to be repaired." Noah fund judgment.
YONGYING Fund: not pessimistic, waiting for further easing after the Spring Festival
YONGYING fund commented that the reasons for the adjustment include overseas geopolitical risks and China's stable growth expectations. The outlook is not pessimistic, waiting for China's further easing policy after the Spring Festival.
First of all, YONGYING Fund believes that the impact of geopolitical risks is often impulsive, and the impact is short-term, which is difficult to form a long-term market repression factor. In addition, after the adjustment of US stocks and the weakening of US economic data, the attitude of the Federal Reserve is expected to ease periodically.
Secondly, in view of the downward pressure on China's economy, YONGYING fund expects that the policy probability will continue to be loose.
"In terms of coping strategies, from the perspective of half a year, the certainty of taking steady growth as the main line is large. The valuation of the sectors related to steady growth is low and can resist external risks. At the same time, it is also in line with the phased support direction of the policy. We need to wait for the data verification signal after the policy is launched." Considering that the logic of steady growth has been deduced more, YONGYING Fund believes that it may be difficult to see a more obvious signal of steady growth before and after the Spring Festival.
If there is a monetary easing signal after the Spring Festival, YONGYING fund judges that its growth style may usher in a phased rebound. "It should be noted that the window period may be before the middle and late March. In the future, once the Fed starts the interest rate hike cycle, the global risk asset prices may be affected again."
Huabao Fund: the adjustment sustainability is limited, and grasp the main line of steady growth + undervalued value
Huabao fund commented that external risks are the main inducement for this round of market adjustment.
"The market generally expects that the contraction rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will speed up, the yield of us ten-year Treasury bonds will rise sharply, and coupled with the negative impact of this round of epidemic, the VIX risk index soared to a new high in recent two years. In addition, the recent crisis in Ukraine has escalated, reducing the market risk appetite and further amplifying the market volatility in the period of emotional fragility of US stocks." Huabao Fund pointed out.
Globally, Huabao fund also observed that investors' risk aversion increased significantly, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF (SPDR gold shares) surged, and the regional crisis situation was affecting the prices of major assets including Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , industrial metals, stocks and bonds in the short term, which also had a negative impact on the risk appetite of the A-share market.
"When the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January is clear and the geopolitical pattern is clear, the external repressive factors may subside before and after the Spring Festival." Huabao Fund said.
In China, Huabao Fund believes that the expectation of "stable growth" continues to strengthen. Monetary policy has been in the window of easing, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates has been implemented, the easing signal has been continuously released, the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds has decreased, and the macro liquidity has remained relatively loose. The real estate policy has improved marginally. Other "steady growth" policies still need to be strengthened, including more financial support, consumption promotion policies and further loosening of real estate regulation policies. The local two sessions have been held one after another. In the policy window period, we can expect more local steady growth policies to be implemented, and the new and old infrastructure chains are expected to continue to exert their strength after the release of market pessimism.
Although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, Huabao Fund believes that the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited and the sustainability will not be particularly strong. It is expected that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound. The "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to follow the policy of stable growth and lay out blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
In terms of configuration, in the policy window period of the local two sessions and the national two sessions, Huabao fund suggests to continue to grasp the main line of steady growth + undervalued market. First, the real estate chain benefiting from the loose margin of real estate policy, including real estate enterprises, property, household appliances, decoration building materials, etc; Second, new and old infrastructure directly related to steady growth; Third, banks and securities companies with high-quality fundamental support + great potential for valuation repair.
"In the past month, northbound capital has increased significantly in bank shares, with a net purchase of more than 21.4 billion yuan in a single month. There are 31 first-class industries in residence, accounting for 1 / 3 of the total net purchase in the same period." Huabao fund specifically mentioned.
In addition, after the current round of negative market sentiment gradually digested and the "two sessions" window period, Huabao fund suggested gradually adding a large consumption sector. The agency believes that China's consumption is expected to become an important starting point for the economy this year, and more promotion policies need to be made.
It includes some food processing industries that benefit from the logic of price rise, as well as catering, tourism, transportation, etc. that benefit from the repair of the epidemic.
"New energy, consumer electronics and other technology sectors are expected to maintain a high degree of visibility in 2022. After this round of adjustment, during the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly report, the direction of business with high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted, or is expected to become a better allocation opportunity for the year." Huabao fund judgment.
Zhongrong Fund: there is no need to worry too much about short-term emotional disturbance
Zhongrong fund commented that there are both internal and external reasons for the sharp adjustment of the index.
"In terms of internal factors, that is, the pressure of economic growth superimposed on the valuation of popular industries is not cheap, or this leads to the rebalancing of investors' positions in the industry, which has triggered the market adjustment since the beginning of the year." Zhongrong Fund pointed out that from the statistics of the disclosed fund's fourth quarter report last year, the proportion of active partial equity funds' positions on the gem decreased and the main board increased, which is also the embodiment of valuation and industry rebalancing.
In terms of external factors, Zhongrong Fund believes that the recent tense international situation may be the reason for the decline on Tuesday. In the contagion of this tension, the stock indexes of major European countries fell sharply on Monday, and the three major U.S. stock indexes opened low and finally closed red after falling. The A-share market was infected by external sentiment and also fell sharply on Tuesday.
However, in the view of Zhongrong fund, geopolitical tension is a risk worthy of attention, but it is not the main contradiction of the A-share market. Under the "double cycle" development pattern, it is expected to have a limited impact on China's economy, so investors need not worry too much about short-term emotional disturbance.
"Since December 2021, the steady growth policy has been continuously launched. Due to the lag in the release of economic statistics, there are still some investment opportunities in real estate and banks during the data vacuum period." Zhongrong fund further said that investors are still recommended to focus on photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, high-end manufacturing and military industry in the medium and long term.
China Europe Fund: pre holiday market turnover shrinks, or it is a medium and long-term buying opportunity
China Europe Fund commented that it was affected by geopolitical frictions and the coldness of trading before the traditional festival.
Specifically, the China Europe Fund believes that there are three reasons. 1. The recent escalation of tensions in Ukraine has led to a more violent response from the international capital market. Major stock indexes have fluctuated sharply, and the increasingly globalized Chinese market has also been affected to some extent, resulting in a sharp decline in theme concept stocks without substantive performance support.
2. Since the beginning of the year, the hawks of the Federal Reserve have taken a tough stance, constantly emphasizing the position of inflation and the prospect of raising interest rates, which has greatly increased the possibility of raising interest rates many times during the year. The bottom of the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has rebounded, and the valuation of A-share growth stocks has fallen sharply through the impact of the valuation of U.S. stock growth stocks.
3. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival. Transactions in China's A-share market tend to shrink before the festival. Under the current market style shift and the reconfiguration of institutional investors, the decline of market funds is easy to amplify the potential volatility before the festival. Although China's loose policy is constantly transmitting confidence to the market, the transmission of substantive measures may still take some time to show results.
"The gradual strengthening of macro factors outside China has put pressure on China's strong growth industry in the past two years. Combined with the weak fund-raising situation since the beginning of the year, it has led to the relative weakness of the heavy position industry of institutions. However, considering the expectation that the steady growth policy will gradually increase before the two sessions, it may still be a better opportunity to pay attention to value." China Europe Fund believes that.
Looking forward to the future, China Europe Fund expects that the efforts to normalize overseas monetary policy mean that there is still uncertainty in the global financial market, and the phased outperformance trend of value stocks relative to growth stocks is expected to still have an impact on a shares. The recent decline in the market has released the risk of A-share valuation differentiation. A-share has gradually emerged the opportunity of reconfiguration, especially in the related fields such as optional consumption, finance and infrastructure investment, which are more sensitive to the theme of economic stabilization.
"We should pay close attention to investment opportunities under the main line of China's steady economic growth, focusing on industries with strong profitability and valuation elasticity in alternative consumption, such as Baijiu, household appliances and service consumption, and the areas with increased elasticity in infrastructure investment related to steady growth, especially those involving energy infrastructure and new energy and power providers in dual carbon sectors," he said. China Europe Fund said.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund: pre holiday emotional factors may still inhibit market performance
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund commented that the decline in market changes was jointly caused by factors outside China, but the recent market continued to be weak, and internal factors may be more dominant. Specifically include:
1. The European and American stock markets experienced a huge earthquake overnight, and the NASDAQ index stabilized after a sharp decline of 5%, but today's Chinese and American stock futures are still falling sharply. Mainly due to the approaching FOMC meeting on January 27, the market is worried that the Fed's monetary policy will be tightened too quickly, and even hinted to start raising interest rates in March. At the same time, the media reported that the tense situation in Ukraine has become a direct fuse to further suppress risk appetite. The Asia Pacific stock market also fell today, and the funds going north also began to turn into a net outflow.
2. The credit default risk of real estate enterprises still puzzles the market.
3. Market expectations on the strength of steady growth policies.
4. The latest fourth quarter report of public funds last year showed that the overall position of institutions was on the high side. Although the positions of some popular tracks were reduced, the overall position was still biased. Although the field of "manufacturing growth" experienced some adjustments, the problem of relatively high stock price and valuation has not been obviously solved. In the short term, there is a lack of catalyst. Under the background of low overall risk appetite of the market, It still brings some adjustment pressure.
5. This week is about to usher in the intensive release period of performance forecast. Some companies with poor performance may focus on disclosing performance forecast. Combined with the economic situation in the fourth quarter of last year, the profit expectation of A-Shares may face great downward pressure.
Looking forward to the future, the market tends to experience "policy bottom, emotional bottom and growth bottom" in turn in the cycle of peaking and recovery. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that the "emotional bottom" may occur from the near future to the early stage of the first quarter, while the "growth bottom" is expected to appear from the first quarter to the second quarter.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund further pointed out that during the three rounds of obvious "steady growth" at the end of 2014, the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2020, the initial market performance was poor due to emotional inertia, and the growth style decreased significantly. After the relevant forward-looking indicators such as social finance, credit, infrastructure and real estate were repaired, the market pessimism often performed better after the improvement of market pessimism.
"We expect that the above-mentioned emotional factors may still inhibit market performance near the Spring Festival, but in the future, with the continuous introduction of 'steady growth' policy details, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China's growth, market sentiment is also expected to repair." In terms of style, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that "steady growth" is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for the sharp decline of the growth style may be relatively limited. The "steady growth" style may last until about the end of the first quarter, which may be the turning point for the style to return to the growth style more obviously.
TEDA Manulife: pre holiday risk avoidance is a short-term behavior, and smart funds may be arranged on a bargain hunting basis
TEDA Manulife Fund said that due to the impact of overseas risk events and the long Spring Festival holiday, risk aversion has increased, and the driving force of A-share incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient. Specifically, there are three reasons for today's market correction:
1. Overseas risk events. The deterioration of relations between Ukraine and Russia accelerated, triggering global market turmoil. Reflected in the general decline of European stock markets on January 24, the huge earthquake of US stocks, and the retreat of Asia Pacific stock markets on January 25. The Nikkei 225 once lost 27000 points, a new low since August 2021.
2. Monetary policy disturbance of the Federal Reserve.
Investors focused on the Fed's policy meeting, which ended on Wednesday. With the increase of the Fed's table contraction expectation, global liquidity concerns emerged, superimposed on the short-term demand of growth stocks for the release of valuation risk, and the relevant tracks generally fell.
3. Long Spring Festival holiday. Under the background of frequent overseas risk events, some short-term investors have the subjective intention to reduce their positions.
"Looking back, these three reasons are not reliable." TEDA Manulife Fund believes that, first of all, the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the global stock market is limited. On the night of January 24, after the sharp intraday decline of the three major stock indexes in the United States, they quickly and strongly turned up in the late trading. It shows that investors pay more attention to corporate earnings and key policy decisions of the Federal Reserve than geographical risks.
Secondly, TEDA Manulife Fund believes that even if the Fed's interest rate discussion results this week are partial to Eagle, there is no reason for A-Shares to retreat with peripheral liquidity. After all, China's overall monetary tone this year still continues credit easing, which can be described as a rare "easing oasis" for Central banks around the world. Moreover, the central bank implemented a 14 day reverse repurchase operation on January 25, and "incremental price reduction", which is expected to continue to see the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter.
Thirdly, in the view of TEDA Manulife fund, pre holiday risk aversion is only a short-term behavior. After the Spring Festival, the market is about to enter the "two sessions market", and the chips are mostly focused on the "stable economy" track with strong certainty and growth industries with performance support. "Smart capital" is likely to bargain hunting in the last few trading days before the festival.
In terms of allocation, TEDA Manulife fund proposes to focus on three directions:
1. "Steady growth" can still be regarded as the main logic, and we can pay attention to the construction materials, road transportation, modern airport and other infrastructure directions; And banks.
2. After the short-term decline of growth targets such as Fengguang hydrogen storage, new energy vehicles and military industry, it is expected to form a "golden pit".
3. Pay due attention to the digital economy.
Penghua Fund: should not be too pessimistic about the A-share market in the first half of the year
Penghua Fund Research Department believes that the recent adjustment of the A-share market is mainly affected by three factors: first, the expected tightening of overseas monetary policy has triggered concerns about global liquidity; Second, the continuation of geopolitical risks and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine have disturbed market sentiment; Third, China's confidence in broad credit and macroeconomic underpinning remains to be verified.
Penghua Fund Research Department said that the incremental capital slowed down in 2022, but under the tone of "stable growth" of the policy, China's monetary policy is expected to get out of the independent market, and there is room for credit easing. Historically, in the case of steady growth or policy force, generally speaking, the market performance will not be particularly poor. Especially in the first half of the year, it should not be too pessimistic about the A-share market.
Looking forward to the future, Penghua Fund Research Department is optimistic about the sector opportunities in the field of infrastructure investment and consumption related to steady growth; At the same time, there are still opportunities for some segments and individual stocks with reasonable cost performance for hard technology sectors such as new energy and semiconductors. In addition, the agency believes that it can pay attention to the structural repair opportunities of Hong Kong stocks.
China Merchants Fund: continue to have limited downward space and gradually recover after the Spring Festival
China Merchants Fund said that today, the market accelerated its downward exploration under the infection of overseas sentiment and fell back to a stage low.
"Since mid December last year, the market has continued to adjust under the influence of many negative factors such as overseas liquidity impact." For the reasons for the continuous decline of the recent A-share market, China Merchants Fund believes so.
Meanwhile, China Merchants Fund said that negative factors gathered and superimposed overseas disturbances, and A-Shares continued to be under pressure. Since January this year, under the influence of two negative factors, the market valuation has continued to be under pressure. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas interest rate increase and reduction is advanced, and the real interest rate rises rapidly. As the inflection point of global liquidity has arrived, it will bring marginal fluctuations to China's liquidity expectations from the perspective of asset allocation. On the other hand, China's real estate credit worries and covid-19 epidemic twists and turns continue to suppress risk appetite. The recent disturbance of the situation in Ukraine has also brought significant disturbance to the global equity market, and the risk appetite of A-Shares has also been impacted by overseas transmission. In addition, from the transaction level, the market trading activity continues to decline under the early spring festival in 2022, the poor profit-making effect before the festival and the fluctuation of net value.
Looking forward to the future, after the rapid decline of the pre festival market, China Merchants Fund may be more optimistic about the post festival market.
\u3000\u3000 "Looking forward to the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward. At present, the improvement of real financing demand has not been verified. Structural wide currency and total wide currency may go hand in hand, and the central bank will continue to actively 'push forward'. At the same time, with the successive convening of the local two sessions, the demand for steady growth is strong, and the investment in infrastructure and manufacturing industry is expected to accelerate. On the other hand, the negative factors will increase Fast convergence. The expected impact of overseas liquidity will be gradually digested, and the real estate credit risk will be gradually exposed and digested. " On the whole, according to the judgment of China Merchants Fund, the short-term risk appetite of investors is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After the Spring Festival, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up.
On the layout of A-share structure, China Merchants Fund said it would grasp the main line of market value and steady growth.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that the performance of individual stocks with large market value in 2021 was not dominant, mainly due to the better performance of mid cap blue chips with profit elasticity under the environment of "downward profit (but still positive increase) + credit expansion + currency Widening". On the one hand, high profit growth has the advantage of scarcity. On the other hand, the environment of widening credit currency benefits growth and profit growth more. However, based on the current situation, it will be more difficult to find industries with obvious high prosperity advantages in 2022. At the same time, as the main line of steady growth emerges, the redistribution of profit structure and the repair of the middle and lower reaches will become an important clue for value promotion.
