Food and beverage
Market review: in this period, all sub items in the food and beverage sector generally rose, with the wine sector rising by 5.16% and the food sector rising by 0.26%. At present, there are signs that macroeconomic indicators have bottomed out and rebounded, which is conducive to the recovery of social consumption to the normal level, and the cold and warm consumption is the fundamental factor determining the performance of the sector throughout the year. From this perspective, we are more optimistic about the performance of the sector in the whole year than last week. In addition, in the first and second quarters of 2022, the profitability and performance of listed companies are expected to reach the bottom. With the market expectation of the bottom recovery of fundamentals heating up, the performance of the food sector is worth looking forward to. Pay attention to food blue chip assets and high growth assets.
Risk tip: Residents’ consumption is further weakened, and the sales of listed companies are lower than expected.
This period, the bank (CITIC) index rose 4.26%. The direct impact of LPR decline on bank net interest margin is about 7bp. The easing policy may come to an end in the short term, and the space and pace of policy easing in the future may depend on the performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the performance growth and asset quality of the industry were better than expected. Compared with the macro disturbance, we paid more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry. It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Lithium battery
The current lithium battery index fell 4.62%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In the short term, the Shanghai stock index is expected to be dominated by shocks. Combined with the prosperity of the industry and the trend of the sector, it is suggested to pay attention to the rebound of the sector after the main indexes stabilize, but it is still not optimistic on the whole.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index fell 3.83%, underperforming the Shanghai index by 3.87 percentage points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.94 percentage points, ranking 28th among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s three sub industries, all fell, while daily chemicals, rubber products and printing and dyeing chemicals were relatively resistant to decline. Suggested attention: Pesticide sector and modified plastic sector.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices decline sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected
Medicine
Market review: in this period, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole fell by 7.19%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 1.11% in the same period, which is stronger than the market as a whole. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the pharmacy sector, medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine sector in the field of pharmaceutical services. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 specific drug related companies.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
Computer
*** The differentiation among them is very serious. The targets with higher growth are mainly those concerned by non institutions, showing a trend of hot money speculation as a whole. We can see that with the improvement of the epidemic this week, Britain and the United States have relaxed the control of the epidemic, and the market is expected to be more optimistic about the impact of the epidemic, which will help the overall performance of the industry to improve.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Securities
In this period, there was a strong and sustained rebound in the securities sector. In a short period of time, the power of securities companies’ continuous upward rebound is insufficient; In the medium and long cycle, the brokerage index will still maintain the trend of horizontal shock consolidation.
Risk tips: 1 The short-term growth rate is too fast and the growth rate is too large, resulting in the rapid adjustment of securities companies; 2. The weakening of the secondary market of equity and fixed income leads to the failure to continuously improve the operating performance of the securities industry; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
In this period, the photovoltaic industry fell by 2.26%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and the average daily transaction amount continued to shrink month on month. Individual stocks in the sector fell more and rose less, with poor profit-making effect. The short-term market risk appetite is reduced, and there are signs of rebound after the continuous decline of photovoltaic sector. Considering the industrial conditions, valuation and market sentiment, we still need to be cautious in the short term. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply, improving the demand for photovoltaic installation and the layout of beneficiary areas.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
Media
Investment suggestions: from the “14th five year plan” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan “, the” 14th five year plan “period development plan of the publishing industry, the” 14th five year plan “digital economy development plan, the” 14th five year plan “of copyright work and other policies have been successively issued to clarify the development path and provide guidance for all fields of the media sector. Among them, the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy focuses on accelerating the construction and application of 5g network, accelerating the integration of digital technology and various industries, and the added value of core industries of digital economy should account for 10% of China’s GDP (7.8% in 2020). Specific development goals such as virtual reality, 8K high-definition video, interactive video, immersive video and cloud games should be developed. In the medium and long term, there is a large space for digital transformation of various industries in China, and the media sub field represented by landing application scenarios may continue to benefit. Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market”.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation and virus mutation risk; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector fell 2.9%, underperforming CSI 300 (1.26%) by 4.16 PCT, ranking eighth from the bottom in 30 CS primary industries. In the short term, it is recommended to patiently wait for the adjustment of the core track and continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track sector represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises for a long time. The policy has repeatedly focused on stabilizing growth and benefiting the leaders of mechanical oil and gas equipment, forklifts, aerial work vehicles and other sectors.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Correspondence
Market review:
The current communication (CITIC) index fell 0.14%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (1.11%) in the same period, ranking 13th among 30 CITIC primary industries. In the short term, the downward expectation of risk appetite has a strong suppression on the science and technology sector, and the upward driving force is limited. It mainly focuses on structural investment opportunities. It is expected that the pace of data center construction will be accelerated in 2022, the demand for upgrading servers and switches in data will increase, and the demand for PCB products related to high-quality digital communication is expected to be released. At the same time, we should pay attention to relevant investment opportunities in the field of Internet of things, such as vehicle module, power Internet of things, etc. It is recommended to focus on four sectors: operators, main equipment manufacturers, PCB and Internet of things.
Risk tips: 1) the Internet of things is not playing as expected; 2) 5g construction progress is less than expected; 3) Sino US science and technology game uncertainty.
Household appliances
This week, CITIC’s home appliance industry index rose 2.85%, ranking fifth in CITIC’s first-class industry classification. It is suggested to pay attention to the white electricity and small household appliances sector that continues to benefit from the improvement of domestic sales. In the short term, under the rotation of the sector and the switching between high and low market prices, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the head companies in each subdivision track.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC II) industry fell by 3.13%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.11%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry lost 4.24 percentage points to the benchmark index. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, most sub industries showed varying degrees of decline this week, among which the aquatic products processing sector experienced the largest decline, closing down 22.38%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
