Steel: near the Spring Festival, the trading of steel market tends to be light. The recent price performance is that the iron ore is relatively strong, the steel price rises slightly driven by the cost, and the profit of steel smelting shrinks. On the whole, the market is still trading, and the steel enterprises resume production. Hot metal production has been on the rise since the end of last year, with the share of extruded electric furnace steel and the profit per ton of steel declining. The Winter Olympic Games after February may lead to the phased strengthening of production restriction in North China. At that time, it may be conducive to the stabilization of the profit per ton of steel, but the supply policy will face uncertainty again after March. At that time, the profit of steel will depend on the steady growth, the demand pulse and the loosening of the supply side. Overall, this year’s steel profit is expected to be a lower level than last year. It is suggested to look for opportunities from the growing new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc.
Coal: the price continues to rise, the performance of coal enterprises breaks out, and the sector market is expected to continue to deduce. In terms of thermal coal: the downstream storage continues to be replenished near the Spring Festival, and the coal price continues to rise. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1000 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the rise. In terms of supply, near the Spring Festival, some small mines have stopped production and holidays, and most of the coal mines in production are in normal production, so the supply continues to be slightly tight; The downstream replenishment is active, the queue of hauling vehicles is common, and the price of pit mouth has increased. In terms of import, traders are cautious about the current coal import transactions in China, and the transactions are concentrated in overseas markets; According to importers, Indonesian coal is being released in batches, and some pallets are expected to arrive at the end of January and February. In terms of demand, affected by the Winter Olympic Games and the suspension of production and holiday near the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal has a positive demand for goods preparation in the near future, mainly the phased replenishment demand of chemical non electric enterprises. On the whole, the coal supply continued to be slightly tight this week, the export ban in Indonesia was relaxed, the overseas market demand was strong, and the phased replenishment of storage in the downstream continued, providing strong support for the coal price. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the arrangement of Indonesia. In terms of coking coal, supply and demand support the strong operation of the market, driving the price rise. In terms of coking coal, both supply and demand are weak, mainly stable. As of January 21, the price (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port has been increased by 2830 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, coal mines in some areas of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi stopped production and had holidays, and the supply side decreased. In terms of import, due to Mongolia’s private change in the closed-loop mode, China suspended the accounting and testing of Mongolian drivers on the 18th. There was no customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port on the 19th. On the 3rd of this week, the average daily customs clearance was 92 vehicles (week on week – 6 vehicles), and Mongolia’s coal resources were very limited. In terms of demand, the coke inventory of steel mills is high, the production restriction policy has gradually begun, the coke market sentiment has weakened, and the demand is weak. On the whole, both supply and demand have tightened, the short-term market is mainly stable, and the follow-up attention will be paid to the implementation of production restriction. In terms of coke, the balance between supply and demand will be maintained before the festival. As of January 21, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 183 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the market was temporarily stable after the fourth round of increase. With the recovery of coke enterprises’ profits, the construction of coke enterprises picked up steadily. However, with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, coke enterprises in some regions received the notice of production restriction, and some coke enterprises were blocked from shipping due to the weather and epidemic situation. In terms of demand, the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games has gradually become clear, the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the weather and epidemic situation have led to poor arrival of some steel mills, affecting market sentiment. On the whole, the coke supply tightened, the demand weakened, and the market gradually stabilized. Follow up attention was paid to the shipping situation and the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games. Investment strategy: this week, coal prices continued to rise. Near the Spring Festival, some coal mines have stopped production, and the supply side continued to tighten; The downstream is worried about the impact of factors such as coal mine holidays and transportation bottlenecks. The goods are actively prepared, there are many coal mine transportation vehicles, and the upward trend of price continues. Recently, with the steady recovery of inventories of Indonesia’s state power company and terminal power plants, the government has lifted the export ban on 139 coal producers. As of January 18, a total of 48 coal ships in Indonesia have been allowed to leave the port. It is expected that the international coal supply will improve. We still need to pay attention to the follow-up measures of the Indian government. Last week, many coal enterprises disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.87 billion yuan (+ 4.6 times), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) 4.5-5 billion yuan (+ 4.4-5.0 times), Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) 2.15-2.45 billion yuan (+ 4.7-5.5 times). The significant release of the performance of coal enterprises and the full release of the risk of superimposed coal price are conducive to the continuous catalysis of the market of the sector. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need transformation, power investment, energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Nonferrous Metals: the epidemic in South America is intensifying, and the expansion of salt lake continues to be postponed; Argentina, Bolivia and Chile plan to establish an organization of lithium producing countries, and the lithium ore “OPEC” is ready to come out; In the first quarter of cattlin, the long-term single price of lithium concentrate reached US $2500 / ton; The output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in Lynas increased by 8% month on month in the fourth quarter. The demand boom continued to rise, and the price transmission was smooth. In China, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration rate was 13.4%, of which 500000 vehicles were exceeded in a single month in December. The passenger Association expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 6 million, with a penetration rate of about 22%. Lithium carbonate prices accelerated upward again. This week, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 10.1% compared with last week, battery grade lithium hydroxide quotation increased by 10.6% compared with last week, spodumene quotation increased by 10% compared with last week. Mtcatlin mine expects the long single price of 22q1 lithium concentrate to reach 2500 US dollars / ton; With the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further. The quotations of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.4% and 0.4% month on month respectively, and the prices of metal cobalt and cobalt sulfate in China increased by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively; Rare earth: the shortage of raw materials continued, and the downstream enterprises increased their demand for goods at the end of the year. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased slightly by 2.5% this week. In the spot market, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 2.5% to 928000 yuan / ton compared with last week; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide increased by 0.3% and 1.6% compared with last week. Nickel: the price reached a new high in recent 10 years, and the nickel price continued to set a new high in recent 10 years. SHFE nickel closed at 176700 yuan / ton, up 7.73% month on month; On the supply side, Indonesia plans to levy a tax on ferronickel. The government may begin to levy a tax on the export of ferronickel and nickel pig iron in 2022. If the nickel price is more than 15000 US dollars / ton, a tax of 2% may be levied, and the tax will increase with the increase of nickel price. Previously, the Indonesian government has repeatedly expressed the idea of levying a tax; Myanmar dagongshan nickel smelting project power plant was bombed and suspended production, with an annual production capacity of 85000 tons of FeNi.
For base metals, China’s further easing policy is expected to heat up, the price of base metals has increased, the international oil price has reached a seven-year high under the concern of oil and gas supply interruption in Europe, the prices of tin and aluminum have also risen strongly stimulated by demand and production restriction, and the prices of other base metals have followed suit; The Central Bank of China lowered the policy interest rate for the first time in nearly two years. Supported by the expectation of further easing policy in China, the price of base metals rose. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by 2.1%, 1.2%, – 0.8%, 3.2%, 7.2% and 8.7% respectively this week, and the price rose as a whole.
Building materials: this week, we added carbon fiber industry data tracking content, mainly including product price, cost and profit data, as well as capacity / output / import and export / inventory data. This week, the central bank cut interest rates in an all-round way to release liquidity, and monetary policy actively made efforts to stabilize growth. We believe that in the short term, we attach importance to the infrastructure chain and are optimistic about the investment opportunities of brand building materials and new materials throughout the year. The expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials (refer to the resumption in 2014 / 18). The performance repair is expected. The layout of brand building materials has high certainty. In the field of new materials, carbon fiber / high-purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. The glass fiber cycle weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue, and the price center of electronic cloth fell. The price toughness of float glass still exists; Photovoltaic glass may have price elasticity at the bottom of the cycle. Cement industry integration + extension; Water reducing agent opens up growth space for functional materials.
Chemical industry: 1) the leading value crosses the cycle and actively embraces the opportunities of new materials: the medium-term recovery of crude oil is expected. It is suggested to pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. Affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in October 2021 increased by 31.50% year-on-year, which was positive for 10 consecutive months. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or realize through the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . 2) New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the targets of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. The economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Risks of macroeconomic downturn; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
