Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: computer, communication, military industry, electrical equipment, bank, real estate
Standard configuration: medicine, automobile, household appliances, textile and clothing, mining, nonferrous metals, building materials, media, electronics, steel, machinery, light industry and chemical industry
Low allocation: leisure service and transportation
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio year to date is - 0.09%, which is 2.64% relative to the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
Valuation: CSI 300iape is above the 50th percentile, and CSI 300pb is close to the 40th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 50th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is above the 50th percentile line, and Shanghai 50pb is close to the 40th percentile line. IAPE on GEM is close to the 70th percentile, and Pb on GEM is above the 80th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry rose less and fell more, with coal, computer, banking, food and beverage, architectural decoration and other industries among the top gainers.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, biological vaccine, photovoltaic, phosphorus chemical industry, artificial intelligence and consumer electronics have cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, network security, nuclear power, photovoltaic, lithium battery, 5g and aerospace equipment have a higher prospect in a reasonable valuation range.
Money & Interest Rate: interest rates have been lowered in turn, and monetary easing has been implemented
Upstream
Oil prices hit a seven-year high
Thermal coal continued to rise before the festival
Lithium supply was lower than expected and prices continued to rise
Iron ore inventories have fallen sharply, and ore prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
Midstream
Steel prices fell as a whole
The photovoltaic sector made a slight correction, and the price of silicon continued to rise
Cement prices continue to fall and are expected to rise after the Spring Festival
The chemical sector was weak, with caustic soda leading the increase
The off-season of logistics is not light, and the prosperity is maintained
Downstream
The negative growth of second-hand housing narrowed
Increasing demand for small household appliances in kitchen
Baijiu spring sales stable, the average price of beer increased
\u3000\u3000TMT
Electronics: consumer electronics continues to improve
Computer: Digital RMB users surge
Media: Microsoft acquires Activision Blizzard to build a meta universe Market
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
