Main points:
Market changes
On January 25, 2022, the market fell sharply, in which the Shanghai stock index fell by 2.58% and the gem index fell by 2.67%, breaking the 3000 integer mark; At the industry level, media, coal, computers, communications, etc. fell significantly.
Overseas risk events and weak peripheral markets suppressed risk appetite, leading to A-share sharp decline
The general sharp decline of A-Shares today is mainly restrained by the risk preference of peripheral risk events, which is reflected in three aspects: ① the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the escalation of conflict, the strong smell of gunpowder, the emergency evacuation of the US embassy, the increase of troops and support, the confrontation, the relative release of war concerns, and the outbreak of regional conflicts, War worries cast a shadow over market sentiment; ② The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is imminent, and the market is worried about the accelerated tightening of monetary policy. Since the interest rate increase and table contraction were mentioned in the interest rate discussion minutes at the beginning of the year, the market's expectation of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve was further advanced, and the US bond yield rose rapidly in stages. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will more fully express and guide the interest rate hike at the interest rate meeting on Thursday. The dot matrix predicts that the probability of starting the interest rate hike on March 17 is close to 90%, and the number of interest rate hikes in the year will reach 4; ③ Overseas stock markets fluctuated sharply or generally fell sharply. U.S. stocks fluctuated sharply and the trend was weak. U.S. stocks closed slightly positive last night, but fluctuated violently. At one time, the NASDAQ fell nearly 5%, the S & P 500 fell nearly 4%, the Dow Jones index fell more than 3% and the panic index soared 20%. Major global indexes also fell sharply, with Russia RTS falling by more than 8%, France CAC40 falling by 3.97%, Germany DAX30 index falling by 3.8%, FTSE 100 falling by 2.63%, South Korea composite index falling by 2.56%, and the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 index also fell sharply. Overseas risk events suppressed the weak sentiment of superimposed a shares, resulting in a sharp decline today.
Overseas risk suppression has been gradually fed back, and the expectation of A-share market is gradually reversed
Since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have continued to decline, mainly due to two factors: first, there is an expected gap in the market in the implementation of steady growth measures in the first half of the month; second, the weak trend and continuous decline of US stocks under the concern of global currency shift have restrained global risk appetite. At present, the concern of the first factor has been alleviated with the unexpected interest rate cut of the whole chain of omo-mlf-lpr-slf and the statement of intensive and stable growth of the decision-making level in the middle of the month, while the second factor is gradually coming to an end with the accelerated risk release of US stocks in the near future. On the one hand, the impact of regional conflicts on emotions will be quickly vented; Second, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has been digested in the market in advance; According to the statistics of the decline range of US stocks in history, in addition to the deep adjustment of US stocks under the sustained economic collapse and the unexpected interest rate cut (more than 20%), the decline of US stocks in other cases is usually up to 10%. Since the current round of US stock decline, NASDAQ has fallen nearly 12%, S & P 500 has fallen nearly 8% and Dow Jones industrial index has fallen nearly 6%, which has basically reached the adjustment step. Therefore, we expect that with the end of the adjustment of US stocks and the elimination of the impact of external risk appetite, A-Shares are still expected to usher in a restless rebound in spring with the support of stable growth policy.
The short-term undervalued sector has improved its cost performance, but it is still optimistic about the main line of growth in the medium term
When the short-term market risk appetite is restrained, the allocation cost performance of the undervalued sector is improved. However, as the adjustment is gradually coming to an end, after ushering in the turbulent market in spring, the four investment main lines deserve more attention: first, the growth main line with large valuation elasticity supported by loose monetary policy and liquidity can still be expected to complete the third stage of the valuation market in the turbulent spring. Three directions: ① green power, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, new energy and new energy vehicle chain related to "double carbon"; ② The middle and upper reaches of semiconductors and national defense industry in the boom direction; ③ Dilemma reversal superposition growth diffusion, such as computers. Second, policies are intensively implemented, and there are also allocation opportunities for the main line of steady growth. Two directions: ① infrastructure power, such as power grid construction, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc; ② Traditional infrastructure such as building materials, steel, etc. Third, the securities companies dancing with the restless market in spring and the real estate with continuous marginal improvement of policies. Fourth, the consumer sector followed the rise, mainly looking for opportunities along the price rise chain. The theme investment direction focuses on the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Risk tips
The outbreak of geopolitical conflict; The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations
