Analysis on the data of foreign exchange market supply and demand and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange on behalf of customers in December: the rate of foreign exchange settlement increased sharply, but the correction of exchange rate is expected to occur

In December, the RMB once touched 6.35 yuan against the US dollar. However, after the central bank raised the foreign exchange reserve ratio, the exchange rate fell to a certain extent. However, the overall situation is still stable and strong. From the perspective of the substantial increase in the rate of foreign exchange settlement and the expansion of the difference between the rate of foreign exchange settlement and the rate of foreign exchange sales, on the one hand, the recovery of the rate of foreign exchange settlement is due to the increase of external income surplus, on the other hand, it also has the crowding effect and settlement effect at the end of the year. But at the same time, from the different changes of export and import hedging ratio, the different changes of settlement and sales performance rate, and the obvious recovery of sales rate after deducting the performance of forward contracts in the current month, the market has certain correction expectations after the sharp rise of RMB exchange rate, especially the dislocation of China US economic cycle in 2022 The marginal weakening of export income and other factors. From the implied depreciation rate of RMB calculated according to NDF, the depreciation rate has rebounded recently, but the overall pressure is controllable.