Main points
Macro view:
1. China's steady growth is still in its early stage, and real estate is the main variable in the rhythm and degree of steady growth. The rhythm of China's policy is related to the economic policy and rhythm of the United States, while the economic policy and rhythm of the United States are mainly related to inflation.
2. US inflation expectations are down, US economic policies focus on supply recovery and improvement of inflation, the economy tends to be stable, and the recovery of capital expenditure promotes the rise of real interest rate. However, monetary policy suppresses inflation and real interest rate at the same time, and the upward space of us nominal interest rate is limited.
Market view:
1. The market style tends to be balanced in the short term, and the growth style will rebound in the short term after the rapid decline, but the main line of steady growth is not over, which suppresses the growth style. "Carbon neutralization" long-term logic, smooth coal, new energy leaders and automotive intelligence are the main directions.
2. In the short term, the anchor of China's economic policy is not clear. The deterioration of the profit-making effect drives the short-term market to weaken. When the monetary policy is not tightened, the market probability is at the bottom.
Optimistic about the sector:
Coal, central enterprises, real estate property leaders, food and beverage, automotive electronics, new energy leaders
Market resumption: the overall sector performance continued to weaken this week. The cycle and growth style were adjusted in stages, with a large decline; Financial, consumption and stable styles fluctuate relatively little. The rise and fall of shenwanyi industry were divided, with coal, computer and bank leading the rise; Medicine and biology, national defense and military industry and basic chemical industry decreased significantly.
Index performance: the overall market index fell this week, and some indexes rose structurally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which fell sharply last week, stopped falling and rebounded, rising 2.54% and 1.11% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.04%. All a, CSI 500, gem and Kechuang 50 fell by 1.03%, 1.48%, 2.72% and 1.67% respectively.
Style performance: the market stopped falling, small and medium-sized markets continued to fall, and the decline range of undervalued sectors narrowed.
This week, large cap stocks rose 0.40%, while medium cap stocks and small cap stocks fell 1.66% and 3.00% respectively. In the valuation sector, the undervalued value fell by 0.10%, the overvalued value sector and the medium valuation sector fell by 1.64% and 2.23% respectively.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of most major indexes increased month on month. In addition to the gem index, the turnover rate of major indexes decreased month on month. There is obvious differentiation in the activity of industry transactions. Northward capital continued to flow in, and the net capital inflow increased. During the week, the top three main inflow industries of land stock connect are: banking, non bank finance and power equipment; The net outflow of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, commerce and retail industry is large. The number of shares held by the northward capital industry increased week on week. The top three are: banking, non bank finance and architectural decoration industry; The top three decreases are: Iron and steel, basic chemical industry and electronic industry. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option decreased by 2.28 percentage points, and the current value is 14.6%; The current value of the standard & Poor's 500 volatility (VIX) index is 28.85, up 9.66 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend - 10-year Treasury bond is currently - 0.73%, up 0.06 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 70%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.53%, up 0.19 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 78%, up for four consecutive weeks, and the market risk appetite has cooled.
Risk tips
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected.
