Looking back on 2021, with the continuous rise of PPI, the ppi-cpi scissors gap reached new highs; Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that “CPI up, PPI down and ppi-cpi scissors gap narrowing” will be the benchmark situation. In this process, corporate profits will be gradually transmitted from upstream to middle and downstream (this should be one of the main lines of certainty in 2022). Based on the methods of correlation coefficient, input-output table and cost conductivity matrix, and combined with key industrial chains, this paper analyzes the profit transmission of different industries under the background of narrowing ppi-cpi scissors difference.
I. historical perspective: the impact path and transmission time point of the narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors on corporate profits
On the whole, the scissors gap narrowed, industrial profitability tended to decline and service profitability tended to rise; The proportion of upstream decreased and the proportion of middle and downstream increased. Specifically, the impact of ppi-cpi scissors difference on the profitability of various industries can be discussed in two dimensions: how? When?
1. Influence path: three methods of calculation (the text has a detailed calculation process) adopt three methods for calculation: calculation method 1 directly constructs the correlation coefficient between the profit of each industry and the scissors difference, and methods 2 and 3 respectively investigate how the change of scissors difference affects the “quantity” and profit rate (price cost) from the three factors of volume, price and profit rate.
1) directly calculate the correlation coefficient between industry profit and scissors difference: the profits of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, power and heat, food manufacturing, printing, wood processing and other industries are negatively correlated with ppi-cpi scissors difference, and the profit performance in the downward stage of scissors difference may be better; The profits of coal mining and beneficiation, black smelting, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and non-ferrous smelting are positively correlated with the ppi-cpi scissors difference, and the profits in the downward stage of the scissors difference may be damaged.
2) build the price elasticity coefficient (quantity) of sales quantity: the elasticity coefficient of transportation and storage in the midstream equipment manufacturing, downstream consumption manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, rubber and plastics and service industry is large, which means that the increase of sales quantity in the downward direction of price is more; The elasticity coefficient of upstream mining, raw materials, electrical machinery and electronic communication in midstream equipment manufacturing, accommodation and catering in service industry is small, which means that even if the price drops more, the sales volume increment is limited, and the profit is more likely to be damaged in the downward stage of scissors difference. 3) Cost consumption and cost transmission capacity (profit margin): the impact of upstream price changes on the costs of the middle and lower reaches mainly depends on the consumption quantity of raw materials and cost transmission capacity. The former can be measured by the complete consumption coefficient, while electrical machinery, electric power and heat, other manufacturing and downstream consumption and manufacturing consume more of the seven main raw materials, The cost suppression in the downward stage of scissors difference may be alleviated; The latter is mainly measured by the cost conductivity matrix. The cost conductivity of upstream mining, chemical industry, chemical fiber, black, non-ferrous and midstream equipment is stronger, and the upward stage of scissors difference is more beneficial; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, special equipment, downstream consumer manufacturing (furniture manufacturing, textile and clothing, etc.) and finance and real estate in the service industry are more resilient in the cost transmission in the downward stage of the scissors difference, and profits may benefit in the downward stage of the scissors difference.
4) reasons for the difference in the impact of ppi-cpi scissors difference on the profitability of different industries: there are differences in cost transmission and price elasticity of quantity in different industries. The deep-seated reason lies in the differences in factors such as industry structure, market position and product added value. If an industry has obvious advantages in at least one aspect, the probability of cost transmission ability will be strong, For example, upstream mining, waste resources, service industry, etc.
2. Conduction time point: calculated by two methods (the text has a detailed calculation process)
1) inventory turnover: most of the upstream cost changes are reflected in the enterprise profits, which lag 2-6 months; There are great differences in different industries. For details, see: equipment manufacturing > downstream consumption (optional) > upstream raw materials > downstream consumption (required) > upstream mining > utilities. However, there are three uncertainties in measuring the transmission delay from ppi-cpi scissors to corporate profits by using inventory turnover: first, industries with strong cost transmission ability can adjust prices to further transmit costs, and this process does not need to be carried out after inventory consumption; Second, inventory turnover can only reflect the time lag from direct upstream price changes to profits; Third, the price itself will also affect the willingness of enterprises to replenish.
2) lag correlation coefficient: compared with inventory turnover, the lag correlation coefficient shows that the upstream conduction delay is shorter, the downstream conduction delay is longer (except for required consumption), and the midstream is uncertain. Specifically: optional consumption > Service Industry > construction > upstream raw materials (chemical industry chain) > upstream raw materials (metallurgical industry chain), mandatory consumption and upstream mining. The differentiation of industries in the middle reaches of the industry is relatively serious.
II. Realistic perspective: the impact of this round of narrowing of the scissors gap on profitability needs to pay attention to three characteristics
> supply side: dual carbon and dual control still have constraints on bulk supply (dual carbon is the long-term direction and dual control is related to the short-term goal). The superposition of potential policy contradictions may exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand of some commodities and the rise of costs. The bulk price center in 2022 may be higher than that in previous years, especially in the first half of 2022, the absolute value of PPI is expected to be still high, It means that the upstream profit may still be in the top area in the short term.
> demand side: subject to the four heavy drag of consumption tendency, consumption confidence, repeated epidemic and polarization between the rich and the poor, consumption tends to improve in 2022, but it is expected that the range is limited and it is difficult to return to the normal level, which may delay the speed of profit restoration of downstream industries. Structurally, the mandatory consumption has been restored, and there is still room to make up for some optional consumption; The post real estate cycle tends to decline, cars may improve, and crude oil consumption may decline.
> policy side: the marginal loosening of real estate may continue in 2022, and the infrastructure is expected to develop. The calculation results of the complete distribution coefficient show that the four departments of construction, transportation and storage, real estate and water conservancy facilities pull various industries, with the upper reaches of Industry > public utilities > the middle reaches of Industry > Service Industry > the lower reaches of industry. However, considering the limited power space next year, the pull on demand will not be too strong, and the rhythm in the first half of the year may be better than that in the second half.
III. industrial perspective: the actual effect of upstream, middle and downstream profit transmission from the four industrial chains
> crude oil chemical industry chain: the profits of oil and gas exploitation and fuel processing industries are basically consistent with the trend of oil prices. The transmission capacity of chemical and chemical fiber manufacturing costs is relatively strong, the profit growth rate is positively correlated with oil prices, the transmission capacity of rubber and plastic costs is weak, and the profit growth rate is negatively correlated with oil prices. Maintaining the judgment in the annual strategy, it is expected that the oil price may fall in 2022, or at least will not continue to rise sharply. Therefore, the profits of oil and gas exploitation, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries may fall with the oil price, and the pressure of high oil price on rubber and plastics may be relieved.
> coal power generation industry chain: the profit of coal mining and beneficiation industry is highly positively correlated with coal price, and the profit of power and heat industry is highly negatively correlated with coal price. Looking forward to 2022, coal mining and fuel processing may decline with the decline of coal price, and the profit of power and heat is expected to improve significantly.
> black smelting – equipment manufacturing industry chain: the cost transmission capacity of the industry chain black smelting > General Equipment > Special Equipment > delivery equipment > automobile manufacturing, which is reflected in the profit. The profit of black smelting is highly related to the steel price. The profit growth rate of general equipment and special equipment industry is relatively consistent with the fluctuation of steel price The profit of automobile manufacturing industry is weakly related to steel price.
In 2022, the steel price may decline, the profit rate of black smelting may fall, the general and special equipment may decline, and the automobile and transportation equipment remain to be observed.
> nonferrous industry chain: nonferrous smelting profit is highly positively correlated with nonferrous price, electrical machinery profit is negatively correlated with nonferrous price, and the correlation between general, special, transportation equipment and other industry profits and nonferrous price is weakened in turn. In the future, the potential contradiction of double carbon and double control policies may aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of relevant non-ferrous metals, the profits of non-ferrous mining and non-ferrous smelting are supported, and electrical machinery may continue to be under pressure.
IV. summary: from the perspective of history, reality and industry, “the decline in the proportion of upstream profits and the improvement in the middle and downstream” should be the benchmark situation this year, but the slope of decline or improvement will be relatively gentle. It is suggested to pay high attention to the upstream, middle and downstream transmission of enterprise profits, as follows:
> industries with relatively improved profitability: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile manufacturing, textile and garment, nonferrous smelting, electric power and heat, etc;
> industries whose profits are relatively determined to decline: coal mining and beneficiation, oil and gas mining, fuel processing, chemical / chemical fiber manufacturing, electrical machinery, etc;
> industries whose profitability needs further observation: non-metallic mineral products (mainly glass and cement), black smelting, metal products, etc. the actual loosening range of real estate and the actual strength of infrastructure construction are the main disturbances.
Risk tip: the model calculation is biased, the epidemic evolution exceeds expectations, the industrial policy is tightened beyond expectations, and the external environment exceeds expectations.
