Executive summary
Since December last year, the relaxation of the dual control policy of energy consumption has supported industrial production and led to the adjustment of the new energy chain in the equity market. High frequency data show that this relaxation is still continuing.
At present, the monetary policy is significantly loose and the improvement of the credit environment is slow. However, the central bank has a strong willingness to promote the improvement of the credit environment, and the structural optimization often occurs after the rise of the total amount of credit in history. Under this background, the systematic downward risk of the equity market is low.
Recently, geopolitics has impacted the risk appetite of overseas markets, but the main focus of the market is still the rhythm of the normalization of monetary policies of major central banks in the world. Considering the Fed's commitment to curb inflation "off anchor", the volatility of overseas markets may increase in the first quarter.
Risk tips: (1) the epidemic development exceeded expectations; (2) Geopolitical risk
