Electrical equipment 11399 fell 2.9%, weaker than the market. This week (from January 17 to January 21, the same below), power generation and power grid rose 1.02%, industrial control automation rose 0%, power generation equipment fell 1%, wind power fell 1.82%, photovoltaic fell 2.97%, new energy vehicles fell 3.65%, lithium batteries fell 4.62% and nuclear power fell 5.43%. The top five increases were Changsha Dialine New Material Sci.&Tech.Co.Ltd(300700) , Dalian Insulator Group Co.Ltd(002606) , Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) , Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) ; The top five declines were star cable, Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) , Bikang shares, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: led by the national development and Reform Commission: the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles will be phased out and the pilot work of power replacement will be carried out; GGII: 2021 China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) lithium battery shipment 220gwh; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released evogo, a power exchange service brand, and plans to build a world leading power exchange service network within two or three years; Byd Company Limited(002594) official announcement of price increase: the price of Dynasty and Ocean series models will be increased by 1000-7000 yuan; Tesla Shanghai Super factory has an annual production capacity of more than 1 million units; The delivery cycle of Model3 / y is up to four months, and Tesla‘s orders have soared; Yu Liguo became Vice President of Xiaomi automobile; Volkswagen Group plans the IPO of battery department; Metal cobalt is quoted at 506500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.3%, nickel at 178100 yuan / ton, this week + 7.1%, manganese at 42100 yuan / ton, this week – 2.1%, metal lithium at 1780000 yuan / ton, this week + 9.2%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 360400 yuan / ton, this week + 7.5%, lithium hydroxide at 292400 yuan / ton, this week + 8.5%, industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate at 10700 yuan / ton, this week + 10.3%, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 287000 yuan / ton, this week + 2.1%, Sanyuan 811 cathode is 304500 yuan / ton, this week + 4.1%, lithium iron phosphate cathode is 127000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.7%, lithium iron phosphate PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, this week + 19.5%, Sanyuan PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, this week + 26.9%. New energy: guanxuan! In 2021, 53gw of photovoltaic power was added, exceeding 300 million kW in total; Xi Jinping : gradually and orderly reduce traditional energy in the process of promoting reliable substitution of new energy; Han Zheng: accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base; National Development and Reform Commission: encourage qualified places to give appropriate subsidies or loan interest discounts to green building materials and low-carbon and energy-saving products; The State Council issued a document to encourage the rational layout of photovoltaic power generation and energy storage facilities along the transportation line; National Development and Reform Commission: establish a linkage mechanism between green power trading and renewable energy consumption weight; The power change mode is very good! Seven departments issued documents to promote green consumption and support new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry; Top 10 global component shipments in 2021; Break through 21.5gw! The installed capacity of household PV broke out in 2021; Target 623gw! 14 central enterprises’ new energy planning of the 14th five year plan and the “report card” of the first year; Ranking of battery chip shipments in 2021: Tongwei and aixu maintained the leading position, and the successive ranking manufacturers were the same compared with last year; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material was 239 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 1.70%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 5.15/6.15/8.1 yuan / piece, with a month on month ratio of + 0.98% / + 0.82% / + 1.25%; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.08 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of + 1.89%; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.83 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: in December, the cumulative fixed investment of manufacturing industry was + 13.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was – 0.2pct month on month; Industrial added value in December was + 4.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 0.5pct month on month; In December, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) / cutting machine tools / forming machine tools were + 15.1% / + 5.8% / + 0% year-on-year respectively.
Company level: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : promised to supply lithium battery isolation membrane of no more than 2.5 billion yuan to China Innovation airlines, and obtained an advance payment of 100 million yuan. Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.307 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 152.39% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 1.233 billion yuan, an increase of 156.18% at the same time. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be 439 million yuan, an increase of 204.81% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 421 million yuan, an increase of 207.68% at the same time. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : Zhejiang Huayou new energy technology and South Korea POSCO chemical plan to increase the capital of Huayou POSCO by 867 million yuan and 578 million yuan respectively, and increase the capital of Puhua company by 655 million yuan and 983 million yuan respectively. Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 344-393 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 110% – 140% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 321-366 million yuan, an increase of 110% – 140% at the same time. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 93-142 million yuan, an increase of 81.8% – 177.54% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 75-121 million yuan, an increase of 55.38% – 150.18% at the same time. Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 530-603 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 184.25% to 223.56% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was RMB 479-546 million, with a same increase of 192.59% – 233.05%. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 136-238 million yuan, an increase of – 9.55% – 58.82% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was RMB 114-181 million, with a same increase of – 15.01% – 34.27%. Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 490-506 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 190.67% – 200.16% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 444-460 million yuan, an increase of 204.45% – 215.42% at the same time, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 156-172 million yuan, an increase of 186.51% – 215.97% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 136-152 million yuan, an increase of 171.4% – 203.27% at the same time.
Investment strategy: the current valuation of the electric vehicle sector has been adjusted back to 25-40x in 2022, which is at the lower limit of historical valuation. The recently disclosed performance of Q4, the leading company, has exceeded market expectations. After we comprehensively revised our expectations in 2021, it will generally increase by 70-100% in 2022. At the same time, the high view continues, and the global sales volume will reach 6.15 million in 2021, exceeding the market expectation; Optimistic in 2022, we expect the world to reach 10 million vehicles, an increase of 60%. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to last until 2022. In 2022, there is still a double increase in volume and profit; The price rise in the battery link fell to the ground, and the Chinese market rose by 5-10%. Some car enterprises have followed the price rise, but they have not changed, and the new orders are strong. In the short term, the output of Q1 industry is still not light in the off-season, and the month on month is flat. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold rebound of the electric vehicle sector and strongly promote the leaders of all links. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term.
In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets through large scenic bases and the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the “14th five year plan” period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and massive penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high capacity release and high increase period), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm, strong profitability) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (market expectation and profit inflection point of iron lithium demand supermarket), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectation and comprehensive breakthrough in powertrain), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader in inverter and prospective layout of energy storage) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high growth period), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader in carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (leader in cobalt salt and positive prepolymer), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader in series inverter, high performance growth) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer, high-quality and rapid expansion of production by customers), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader of monocrystalline silicon chips and components, strong comprehensive strength), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (leader of EVA and Poe, photosensitive dry film loading), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter, power of energy storage business), Hemai Co., Ltd. (shipment has doubled continuously, which can be expected for your leader) Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorine chemical industry exceed market expectations), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays and supermarket market expectation in 2021), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (leader of integrated components and profit elasticity in 2022), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (leader of silicon and perc battery, profit exceeds market expectations), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (leader of secondary equipment and benefit of power Internet of things), Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
