On January 14, 2021, the central bank issued the draft of the administrative measures for acceptance, discount and rediscount of commercial bills for comments. The background of the draft measures: first, in December last year, the bill interest rate fell sharply, the proportion of bills in credit continued to expand, and the bill impulse and arbitrage effect were significant. Second, in May last year, the national Standing Committee requested to reduce the accounting period of small and medium-sized enterprises. Third, the previous version of the method was released in 1997. It took a long time and needs to be updated to adapt to the new market and business.
Impact: first, through proportional restrictions and real trade regulations, control the arbitrage and impulse of bill business, and the proportion or marginal decline of arbitrage and guarantee deposit. Corresponding to the statement made by the central bank at the press conference of financial statistics, it is intended to “implement stable growth” and “financial institutions should take the initiative to find good projects”. Second, the accounting period of some small and medium-sized enterprises is shortened, which is good for entities. Third, the bill business of more than 6 months may be converted into loan or other business. Fourth, the off balance sheet bank acceptance balance and margin deposits of some joint-stock banks and urban rural commercial banks may be under pressure. In the medium and long term, banks are more active in strengthening customers and business. The draft for comments not only improves the original provisions, but also reflects the guidance of steady growth. Reiterate their views and be optimistic about the bank market. There is still room and impetus for the steady growth and real estate policies. If the economic data are still weak and the effectiveness of credit and other relevant measures is insufficient, the policies may continue to work to ensure the steady growth and real estate take effect until the economic and real estate data and expectations improve.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to regional banks with rapid performance growth, such as Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , and continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
Make it clear that the maximum acceptance balance of bank acceptance bills accounts for 15% of total assets and 10% of margin deposits
The draft clearly stipulates that the maximum acceptance balance of bank acceptance bills shall not exceed 15% of total assets and the balance of deposit shall not exceed 10%. Compared with the previous regulation, specific proportion indicators have been determined. From the reference data of listed banks, some joint-stock banks are slightly under pressure, and the proportion of some urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks is slightly higher (refer to the attached table for specific data). It is expected that the overall situation in the banking industry is similar, and some urban rural commercial banks may face pressure drop in bill business and related margin deposits.
Strengthen the requirements of real transaction background and clarify strict penalties
The measures reaffirm the real transaction background again. Financial institutions should clarify the real transaction background from the beginning of issuing bills, and emphasize that acceptance and discount must have a real trade background. The measures further clarify the penalties. If financial institutions handle without real transaction background, they can take penalties such as suspending their bill business, and the drawer and holder need to bear responsibility for fraudulent acceptance and discount.
Shorten the payment period, implement the requirements of the previous national standing committee, and reduce the accounting period of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In May last year, the national Standing Committee proposed that the term of commercial bills should be reduced from one year to six months. Previously, the measures for the administration of e-commercial bill business expanded the term of bills from six months to one year. This time, it will be transferred back to six months. The pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises to occupy funds may be alleviated, and some bill businesses may be converted to short-term loans.
Emphasize information disclosure and regulatory requirements
This time, clear information disclosure requirements are put forward for the acceptor and the disclosure of bond issuance is encouraged, which is conducive to the circulation of bills. The measures are jointly interpreted by the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, adding the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and clarifying its bill supervision responsibilities.
Risk warning: large-scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
