Key investment points:
CITIC machinery sector fell sharply last week, and individual stocks performed poorly. Last week, CITIC machinery industry fell by – 2.9%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index (+ 1.26%) by 4.16pct, ranking eighth from the bottom of 30 CITIC primary industries. Among the tertiary sub industries, only textile and garment machinery, lithium battery equipment and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased positively, up 1.69%, 1.19% and 0.55% respectively. Plastic processing machinery, boiler equipment and nuclear power equipment increased slightly, down 7.22%, 6.44% and 6.37% respectively.
The demand and sales data of construction machinery continued to decline, and the prosperity of semiconductor equipment and oil and gas equipment increased. In December, the sales of construction machinery continued to decline by 23.8% month on month. However, the downstream infrastructure investment, real estate investment and new construction data continue to deteriorate, and the demand continues to be depressed. In 2022, the policy has repeatedly emphasized steady growth, and the demand for construction machinery is expected to improve marginally. Brent crude oil continues to rise, the number of active drilling wells in the United States continues to pick up, and the oil and gas equipment and oil service industry is expected to see a pick-up in prosperity. The sales of semiconductor equipment grew rapidly. TSMC, a large head wafer manufacturer, plans to increase its capital expenditure by 33-47% in 2022, and the prosperity of semiconductor equipment continued.
Investment advice
Continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth, adjust the track of mainstream new energy and semiconductor equipment in the short term, wait and see for the next opportunity to enter. In the medium and long term, new energy (photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment) and semiconductor equipment are still the direction with the most definite growth and the largest growth space.
This year’s economic growth is under great pressure, and policies have focused on stabilizing growth for many times. It is expected that various measures to stabilize growth in the first half of the year will be strengthened to benefit the leaders of mechanical oil and gas equipment, forklifts, aerial work vehicles and other sectors.
Continue to emphasize the specialized and new small giant enterprises that pay attention to strategic emerging industries. It is suggested to focus on the machinery industry, focus on the upstream core parts, and make a breakthrough. The direction with large space for domestic import substitution mainly focuses on the targets, including domestic core parts, basic parts and key targets of domestic machine tools.
Risk tips: 1: the growth rate of manufacturing investment is lower than expected; 2: Export demand is lower than expected; 3: The demand of downstream industries is lower than expected; 4: Raw material prices continued to rise.
