\u3000\u3000 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Thanks to the substantial growth of semiconductor etching equipment revenue, the company’s revenue increased by 37% in 2021, and its net profit increased by 1101% – 1315% after deduction. The performance elasticity gradually appeared. In the long run, as a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the company takes the lead in the technical reserve of high-end etching equipment in China, and will benefit from the promotion of domestic substitution for a long time. From the perspective of valuation, the company’s PS is expected to be about 12 times in 2022. As a leading etching equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and maintains the rating of purchase.
Revenue and profit increased rapidly in 2021: the company expects the operating revenue to be 3.108 billion yuan in 2021, with yoy increasing by 36.7%; The gross profit was 1.336 billion yuan, yoy increased by 56%, the net profit was 950 million yuan to 1.03 billion yuan, and yoy increased by 93% to 109.3%. The net profit after deducting non profit was 280 million yuan to 330 million yuan, and yoy increased by 1100.72% to 1315.13%. Accordingly, 4q21 achieved a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, with yoy increasing by 29.9%. The net profit was 410 million yuan to 490 million yuan, and yoy increased by 89.6% – 127%. The net profit after deducting non profit was 120 million yuan to 170 million yuan, and yoy increased by 67% – 140%. The company’s performance basically meets expectations. Benefiting from the growth of semiconductor equipment market and the improvement of the company’s share, the company’s etching equipment revenue in 2021 was 2 billion yuan, yoy increased by about 55.4%, and the gross profit margin reached 44.4%, maintaining a high level; In addition, the revenue of mini ledmocvd equipment scale orders in 2020 has not been confirmed. The revenue of MOCVD equipment in 2021 was 503 million yuan, an increase of about 1.5% over 2020, but the gross profit margin of MOCVD equipment reached 33.1%, a significant increase over 18.7% in 2020, driving the company’s annual gross profit margin to 43%, an increase of about 13 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Profit forecast: 3.5 billion yuan of new orders were added in the first three quarters, with yoy increasing by more than 110%, including 1.6 billion yuan of new orders for 3q, a significant increase year-on-year. It is expected that with the promotion of mini LED equipment sales, the company’s revenue and profit scale will continue to increase rapidly in the next two years. We expect that the company’s revenue in 2021-23 will be 3.1 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan and 6 billion yuan respectively, yoy will increase by 37%, 45% and 34%, net profit will be 970 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan and 1.28 billion yuan, yoy will increase by 97%, 9% and 21% respectively, and EPS will be 157 yuan 1.72 yuan and 2.07 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 55 times of PE in 2023 and about 12 times of PS in 2023. As a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and gives a buy rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic dragged down the growth of semiconductor equipment demand
