\u3000\u3000 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (603908)
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 57% ~ 80% and the net profit deducted from non parent company will increase by 73% ~ 108% in 21 years
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 71.9747 ~ 82.9747 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 56.55% ~ 80.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 54.4122 ~ 65.4122 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.22% ~ 108.24%.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be 5318 ~ 11531800 yuan, which will turn around the loss year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-profit will be -6852 ~ 4148000 yuan, which will narrow the loss year-on-year or turn around the loss year-on-year; Q4 is the traditional off-season of the company. The net profit attributable to the parent company recorded a loss from 17q4 to 20q4, and the net profit attributable to the parent company turned positive in 21q4, reflecting the upward prosperity of the industry and the continuous growth of the company’s brand business.
The performance growth in 2021 benefited from the growth of the demand of China’s exposed industries and the growth of the company’s main business income and profit; The increase of net profit after deduction was higher than that of net profit attributable to the parent company, mainly because the year-on-year increase of net profit was higher than that of non recurring profit and loss.
The domestic and foreign sales business has formed brand advantages and is expected to continue to grow in large quantities
In terms of export business, the company has accumulated a good reputation by virtue of process design, material quality, production efficiency and additional services, established stable business cooperation relations with overseas customers, formed intangible brand advantages, and is expected to undertake the increase of industrial orders under the growth of demand.
In terms of independent brands, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) provides professional fashion clothes and equipment required by outdoor sports and lifestyle for mass consumers, which is widely recognized. The brand influence continues to expand with the lifestyle of outdoor sports, and is expected to grow in large quantities with the growth of China’s camping market.
Self built intelligent warehouse, invested in camp services, and strengthened warehouse management and downstream channel advantages
The company attaches great importance to the vertical integration of the industrial chain. Its business scope covers R & D, design, production, logistics and sales. It arranges production bases and storage facilities in the upstream, builds a stable sales network in the downstream, and effectively controls the production cycle and production cost. Invest in the integration project of intelligent assembly and storage, improve the level of automatic packaging and intelligent storage, improve the business supporting and support capacity, reduce multiple rental warehouses, and reduce the difficulty of warehouse rent and logistics management. The investment camp service company is hot in the wilderness, Nuggets high-quality industrial chain, obtains upstream and downstream coordination, and plays a positive role in the downstream channel expansion of brand business.
The products are professional and experienced, and the distribution channels complement and win-win with the company
The company sets up a product R & D center, cooperates with the international senior outdoor products design and R & D team and KOL product design opinions in the industry, widely collects the development trend of Chinese foreign products, and timely obtains the changes of product demand in the terminal sales market. On the basis of professional performance, the products have both practicability and experience.
The channel management system is mature, strengthen the interconnection of dealer screening, order meeting organization, order execution, terminal store management, pricing strategy, promotion scheme and other links, strengthen the complementary advantages between the company and channel customers, quickly respond to the latest policy and concept adjustment of the company from top-level design to channel implementation, and realize resource integration and optimization, Form a win-win situation of cooperation between dealers and companies.
Maintain profit forecast and buy rating. The company is deeply engaged in high prosperity outdoor camping track, with broad growth space. The camping heat continues to drive the continuous growth of the company’s demand for camping and surrounding products. Self built projects and investment strengthen the advantages of warehouse management and downstream channels. The company issued the announcement of 21-year earnings forecast. We expect the company’s revenue to be 920 million, 1.19 billion and 1.44 billion yuan respectively from 21 to 23 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 80 million, 120 million and 160 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS to be 120 million, 1.8 million and 2.4 yuan respectively, and the PE to be 38x, 25X and 20x respectively.
Risk tips: the growth of outdoor industry slows down, market competition intensifies, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, the risk of backward products and technology, etc. The performance forecast is only the preliminary accounting result, which shall be subject to the annual performance announcement.
