\u3000\u3000 Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) (600499)
Events
On the evening of January 24, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1 billion-1.05 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 282.40% – 301.52%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 941 million yuan to 991 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9297.28% – 9796.43%.
Commentary
Q4 performance meets expectations. In 21 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company from Q1 to Q3 was 759 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from Q4 was 241 million yuan to 291 million yuan, down 17% – 31% month on month, mainly due to the fact that the sales volume of Q4 lithium carbonate of Lanke lithium industry, in which the company participated in 43.58% of the equity, was slightly lower than expected. In the 21st year, Lanke lithium produced about 22700 tons of lithium carbonate, sold about 19200 tons, and sold only 4000 tons in Q4. In the 22nd year, Q1 sales further improved, and the elasticity began to appear.
High performance fulfillment + great growth potential under high business cycle. Volume: it is estimated that the output of lithium carbonate in 22-23 years will be 35000 tons and 40000 tons respectively, the price: the average price of lithium in 22-23 years will be maintained at 300000 / ton, and the cost: the full cost including tax will be 38000 / ton. It is estimated that the investment income contributed by Lanke lithium industry in 22-23 years will be 3 billion and 3.4 billion respectively, and the performance will enter the explosive period. Qinghai has accelerated the construction of a world-class Salt Lake production base with a planned production capacity of about 100000 tons. Lanke lithium has great possibility of subsequent production expansion and has growth potential in the medium and long term.
The profit of ceramic machinery is stable, and the building materials in Africa are growing rapidly. Driven by the demand for building materials, machinery and equipment outside China, the company has a strong demand for building materials and machinery business orders. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the import of building ceramics in Africa is limited, and the demand for local products continues to grow, with an average annual growth rate of more than 30%. The African subsidiary successfully completed the capacity release of the new building ceramics production line within 21 years, and actively expanded the market to replace the market share of some local discontinued manufacturers and imported ceramic bricks, so as to maintain a high market share, and the production and sales rate reached 100%.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
According to the performance forecast for the 21st year, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the 21st year is reduced by 30% to 1.033 billion yuan. Considering the current tight supply and demand of lithium, the average price in the 22nd-23rd year is expected to maintain 300000 / ton, an increase of more than 50% compared with the previous forecast. Therefore, the high growth trend of performance in the 22nd-23rd year is strong, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the 22nd-23rd year is increased by 38%, 65% to 3.719 billion yuan and 4.469 billion yuan respectively, The corresponding EPS is 0.55 yuan, 1.97 yuan and 2.37 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 37 times, 10 times and 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected.
