\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) (688016)
Performance review
On January 24, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 300 ~ 322 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 40% ~ + 50%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be RMB 277 ~ 296 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 45% ~ + 55%.
In terms of quarters, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 will be 50 ~ 72 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 3% ~ + 38%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 44 ~ 63 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 6% ~ + 52%.
Business analysis
Innovative products continue to grow rapidly. Although the covid-19 epidemic in China has been repeated in 2021, it has a certain impact on the development of aortic interventional surgery. However, new products such as castor thoracic aortic covered stent, Minos abdominal aortic covered stent and reewarm PTX peripheral drug balloon of the company still maintain a rapid growth trend, and overseas business development is also increasing. At present, the leading position of the company in the field of aorta is still stable, and the field of peripheral vascular intervention is expected to open greater potential market space.
Attach importance to the construction of innovation capacity, and further increase investment in product R & D. The company attaches great importance to the research and development of technology and the construction of innovation capacity. In 2021, the R & D investment increased significantly year-on-year. In the equity incentive plan newly implemented by the company in the second half of 2021, in addition to income growth, the company also included the number of registration certificates into the assessment target. Performance assessment target a requires that at least 9 class III medical devices be approved in 2026. It is expected that the R & D investment will continue to grow in the future, and the advantage of the company in R & D capacity is expected to be further consolidated.
The R & D pipeline has entered the intensive approval period, and new products will gradually support performance growth. Since November 2021, the company’s ryflumen peripheral high-pressure balloon dilation catheter, fontus branch intraoperative stent and Talos thoracic aorta covered stent have been approved successively. The new products will provide strong support for the company’s performance growth in the long term. The company has developed a large number of pipeline layout products. In addition to aortic and peripheral artery products, the company has arranged a large number of innovative products in the field of peripheral vein and tumor intervention, with huge long-term potential market space.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We are optimistic about the company’s competitiveness in the field of aortic stents. At the same time, the layout of peripheral vascular intervention field has great potential in the future. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 311, 424 and 574 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 45%, 36% and 36%, and EPS of 4.31, 5.89 and 7.98 yuan / share respectively. The current price corresponds to 47, 35 and 26 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of medical insurance fee control policy; The risk that the research and development of new products does not meet the expectations; Risk of product promotion failing to meet expectations; Risk of overseas trade friction.
