\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) (600460)
On January 21, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1.518-1.531 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2145% to 2165%, deducting the non net profit of RMB 912-926 million, and reversing the loss year-on-year.
The performance continues to grow rapidly, and the provision of expenses at the end of the year affects the apparent profit. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be 790-804 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3316.23% and a month on month increase of 168.50% based on the median value (the same below); Mainly due to the listing of Shanghai Anlogic Infotech Co.Ltd(688107) on the science and innovation board in November 2021 and the introduction of external investors in 2021, the share of net assets enjoyed by the company was adjusted according to the fair value at the end of the period, resulting in an increase in net profit of 534 million yuan and 52.29 million yuan respectively. After excluding the non economic impact, the company deducted non net profit of 225-239 million yuan, with a median month on month ratio of - 18.75%. The slight decrease in ring ratio is mainly due to the increase in R & D expenses. Q4 is generally the settlement period of research topics, and the accrued bonus of employees has increased, while the company's revenue and gross profit margin still have good performance.
The product structure has been steadily upgraded, and the proportion of high-end products such as IGBT has increased. Lack of core accelerated domestic substitution. The company continued to promote the upgrading of product structure and made breakthroughs in high threshold markets such as white power, communication, industry, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles. In terms of product structure: in terms of IGBT, the company covers all areas of medium and low voltage. In addition to Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) and Zero run, vehicle IGBT modules are continuously verified and shipped in Huichuan, Byd Company Limited(002594) ; Photovoltaic wind power has cooperated with mainstream manufacturers such as sunshine and Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) . Single pipe has ushered in orders, and the verification of modules has been increased; In terms of household appliance IPM, it is comprehensively replacing Japanese manufacturers, with a revenue of 410 million yuan in 21h1 and will continue to increase in volume; In the field of industrial control, we have also increased cooperation and supply with Huichuan, Shenzhen Invt Electric Co.Ltd(002334) and others.
In terms of SiC, the company's 6-inch pilot line in Hangzhou has been completed, and the research and development of SiC diode and MOS has been steadily promoted, focusing on the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle markets. And we believe that with 210000 pieces of 6-inch line silicon-based production capacity, SiC can realize rapid conversion after starting production. In terms of MEMS, after more than ten years of hard work, the company continues to launch accelerometers, silicon microphones and other products, which have entered head customers such as hmov, and is continuously increasing production capacity; In terms of power chips, for example, in the field of fast charging, the company also launched a series of PWM main control chips and synchronous rectification products for mobile phone fast charging and vehicle charging, covering the power range of 20w-65w, which is also expected to usher in a large amount. We expect that with the steady upgrading of product structure, not only the revenue will be more stable, but also the gross profit margin is expected to increase gradually.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 22 / 23 to be RMB 1.527/16.28/2.198 billion respectively, and the corresponding current price (closing price of 2022.1.24) PE to be 49 / 46 / 34 times respectively. We are optimistic about the progress of high-end upgrading of the company's products, the steady progress of IGBT, MEMS and third-generation semiconductor businesses, and the growth potential is more worthy of expectation. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: cyclical fluctuation risk of the industry; The risk that the technical iteration is not as expected; Risks of capacity climbing and customer development falling short of expectations
