\u3000\u3000 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (600256)
Layout the hydrogen energy industry chain and officially start the transformation and development of green new energy. Maintain “buy” rating
The company issued the outline of strategic planning for the development of hydrogen energy industry chain: focusing on the existing industrial pattern, the company will accelerate the development of hydrogen energy industry, realize the substitution of transportation energy, green power and chemical hydrogen, and give full play to the dual attributes of hydrogen energy “energy” and “energy storage”. The company’s hydrogen energy industry development plan is clear, which helps to accelerate the transformation of the company into an energy comprehensive development enterprise combining traditional fossil energy and green new energy, and has a positive impact on the future business performance. Considering that the project in the outline is in the planning stage, performance contribution is not considered. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 5.001/62.75/7.975 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 274.3% / 25.5% / 27.1%; EPS is 0.76/0.96/1.21 yuan respectively; Based on the closing price on January 24, the corresponding PE is 8.3 times / 6.6 times / 5.2 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Green power business: layout wind power generation projects to achieve “green hydrogen” production and power trading, killing two birds with one stone
Xinjiang is rich in wind and light energy resources. The planned location of the project belongs to the Santanghu Naomaohu wind area in Hami, one of the nine wind areas in Xinjiang. The terrain is open and flat, and the annual and daily complementarity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is good. According to the plan, by 2030, the total installed capacity of the company’s new energy power generation will reach 6.25 million KW, including 1.25 million kw of photovoltaic power generation and 5 million kw of wind power. In addition, wind power will be equipped with 100 kW of energy storage. The layout of wind scenery complementary projects complies with national policies, meets its own energy consumption needs, realizes the development of power trading business and opens up new profit growth points. The large-scale scenery project can realize the deep coordination of source, network, load and storage, and lay the foundation for “green hydrogen” production. The company plans to complete 537 sets of 1000nm3 / h electrolytic water hydrogen production units between 2022 and 2030, which will be the most important green hydrogen source for the downstream application of hydrogen energy industry in Xinjiang.
Hydrogen business: copy the natural gas business model to realize the rapid development of hydrogen “production, transmission, storage and use”
The application scenario of hydrogen is the same as that of natural gas, which can be widely used in transportation and chemical industry. The company has a mature natural gas industry chain, which is expected to perfectly reproduce the development model to hydrogen energy. According to the plan, from 2022 to 2030, the company will build 46 hydrogenation stations with a daily hydrogenation capacity of 1500kg, supporting 180 1000m3 hydrogen storage tanks, and complete the replacement of 1565 hydrogen energy heavy trucks. The purpose of energy conservation and emission reduction is achieved through the three paths of “transportation energy substitution, green power substitution and chemical hydrogen substitution”. According to the company’s calculation, by the end of 2030, the comprehensive utilization project of hydrogen energy industry chain can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 17.8263 million tons per year. According to the average carbon trading price of Beijing Green Exchange in 2021, 44.89 yuan / ton, carbon trading alone will increase profits for the company by about 800 million yuan.
Risk tip: economic growth slows down; Coal and natural gas prices fell sharply; The planned project progress is less than expected
