\u3000\u3000 Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600867) (600867)
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company's revenue was RMB 3.252 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 12.45%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 1.334 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 43.40%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of RMB 1.123 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.54%.
In 2021q4, the company's revenue was 797 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.82%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.64%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 222 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.15%.
The performance growth is in line with expectations, and the investment income is thickened, which belongs to the net profit of the parent company. In 2021, the company's revenue and net profit not attributable to the parent are in line with expectations. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent is significantly higher than that of net profit deducted from the parent, which is mainly due to more non recurring profits and losses (a total of 210 million yuan, mainly due to the reduction of Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co.Ltd(688278) equity). The steady growth of the company's performance is mainly driven by the high volume of insulin glargine and the stabilization and recovery of the second-generation insulin. Insulin glargine increased rapidly and the second-generation insulin increased steadily. According to the company announcement and WeChat official account information, 2021, the insulin analogue (three generation) income of the company was more than +200%, and the income of the three generation insulin (glargine + winter) was about 400 million yuan. At the same time, the company disclosed that insulin glargine covered more than 3700 hospitals of grade 2 and above. According to the data previously disclosed by the company, insulin glargine revenue exceeded 120 million yuan in 2021q3, and the cumulative revenue in the first three quarters exceeded 279 million yuan, an increase of about 250% compared with the previous year; Second generation insulin increased by 7.29% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021; At the same time, the company raised the overall gross profit margin in the first three quarters to 82.68% (+ 3.78pct) by improving the scale effect.
The national centralized purchase of insulin was implemented and Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600867) kept the price. In November 2021, the national insulin special collection ended, and the company won the bid for five products, including human insulin injection, glargine insulin and aspart insulin. Among them, the winning price of glargine insulin was 77.98 yuan / piece, a decrease of less than 40%, aspart insulin (newly approved product) was 42.33 yuan / piece, and the winning price of human insulin injection, individual protamine and human insulin mixed injection was 28.96 yuan / piece, The actual decline is about 30%. Compared with the practice of price reduction and volume exchange in some competitions, Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600867) chooses to hold the price, and the subsequent competition pattern is expected to change greatly. The growth and changes of insulin market and Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600867) in 22 years need to be continuously observed.
Insulin aspart and oral hypoglycemic drugs have been approved, and the follow-up product development is worth looking forward to. The company's first oral hypoglycemic drug, sitagliptin phosphate, was approved for listing in September 21, while insulin Aspartate Injection and sitagliptin metformin tablets (II) were registered and approved at the same time in October 21. Insulin aspart 50 and 30 have completed phase III clinical treatment, and received NDA acceptance in July 21. It is expected to be approved in 22 years; The application for parallel phase III clinical and phase I clinical of the fourth generation insulin overspeed effect lispro insulin injection (bclispro) was approved in October 21. The phase III clinical database of GLP-1 product liraglutide was locked in June 21, and the production can be reported after the expiration of liraglutide patent. A new class of drugs in the field of diabetes treatment, the three target inhibitor, was approved in June 21. The only soluble glargine lispro double insulin injection in China was accepted in December 21. The phase III clinical trial of second-generation insulin registered in the EU has been completed. The production base of insulin glargine and insulin aspart is expected to meet the EU / USFDA certification in 22 years. Two new drugs for hyperuricemia and gout treatment were introduced in June 21 to enter the field of hyperuricemia and gout. The clinical application of URAT1 inhibitor was accepted in October 21.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.333 billion yuan, 1.202 billion yuan and 1.404 billion yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 43.3%, - 9.8% and 16.8% respectively; EPS is 0.66 yuan, 0.59 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 16x, 18x and 15x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of insulin is reduced due to the influence of policy; The promotion of insulin glargine was not as expected; Intensified market competition; Pledge risk of major shareholders.
