\u3000\u3000 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) (605338)
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the growth of chain leaders accelerated
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 1.35-1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.45% – 43.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 305-315 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.82% – 79.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 145-155 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.42% – 20.17%. By strengthening store expansion, uniformly managing store takeout business, empowering store performance, constantly launching new products to increase store sales, continuously upgrading store hardware image, investing in group meal business and other measures, the company has realized the continuous growth of the number of stores, the rapid recovery of single store performance and the high proportion growth of group meal business, resulting in the rapid improvement of performance. Based on the performance forecast, we adjusted upward the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023, which is expected to be 312 (+ 0.21), 281 (+ 0.55) and 334 (+ 44) million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 126 (+ 0.08) / 1.13 (+ 0.22) / 1.35 (+ 0.18) yuan / share, and the current stock price corresponding to PE of 2021-2023 is 25.5/28.4/23.8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The demand for group meal and chain brand breakfast is broad, and the market concentration is expected to increase
Affected by the policy support and the increased demand for group meals and breakfast of chain brands, the Chinese pasta quick-frozen food industry has a broad market and low industry concentration. In the future, large enterprises are expected to occupy a dominant position. With the accelerated pace of life, consumers pursue health and convenience at the same time, and the demand for breakfast of chain brands is strong. At the same time, the group meal’s emphasis on cost performance also releases the demand for Chinese pasta quick-frozen food, and the market space is broad. At present, the development of the industry has the characteristics of “large market, multi groups, small production and small scale”, with low concentration. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises produce at a low level, which has hidden dangers of food safety. With the strict policy norms and standards, the market share will concentrate on large enterprises with the advantages of scale, brand, technology and quality management, Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) has head potential.
Pay equal attention to store expansion and single store profit enhancement, and the company accelerates forward
The company expects to realize the rapid layout of central China through the acquisition of “good gift guest” and “early and appropriate point”; At the same time, with the accelerated production of Nanjing intelligent manufacturing center, the pace of exhibition stores in East China will also move forward steadily, with both endogenous and extension, and the number of stores of the company may expand beyond expectations. At the same time, the company strengthened research and development, developed new products according to regional tastes, strengthened product diversity, promoted the renewal of old stores, upgraded software and hardware at the same time, and attracted more consumers; Make use of self owned and third-party e-commerce platforms to vigorously develop takeout business, invest in group meal business, cultivate lock fresh products, expand the sales radius of stores, improve cost control ability, and continuously optimize the profitability of single stores.
Risk tips: the promotion of lock fresh clothes is blocked, the expansion of stores is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
