\u3000\u3000 Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) (688356)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual operating revenue will be 350-353 million yuan (+ 87.54% - 89.15%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 174-177 million yuan (+ 103.08% - 106.59%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 157-160 million yuan (+ 89.53% - 93.16%).
Q4 revenue maintained rapid growth, and the apparent profit was affected by various expenses. According to the median calculation, Q4 company's revenue is 90 million yuan (+ 47.49%), maintaining the rapid growth momentum since the first three quarters. It is expected that the order growth rate of downstream customers outside China is still relatively prosperous. The median net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 on the profit side is 33 million yuan (+ 12.15%), and the corresponding net interest rate is 36.95%. The net interest rate has decreased year-on-year and month on month. It is expected that the endogenous profitability is still expected to maintain a high level due to the impact of R & D expenses, equity incentive expenses and investment income.
The application scenarios of PEG are constantly enriched, and the medium and long-term performance is still driven by sustained and rapid growth. In the past 21 years, the company's performance has continued to improve. In addition to the contributions of Chinese commercial customers Kinsey and Hengrui, it also comes from the activity of overseas orders, indicating that overseas peg application scenarios are constantly enriched. The core competitiveness of the company's overseas expansion is mainly reflected in the understanding and technical reserves of new peg technologies and applications, based on the accumulation and deep understanding of PEG technology. Compared with its competitors, the company's R & D direction is diverse and cutting-edge. On the one hand, it can meet a variety of needs of overseas innovation and R & D. on the other hand, the company can provide customers with unique innovation services based on excellent peg technology. The benign interaction with downstream customers is conducive to the company to maintain its advantages over its competitors, optimize production capacity application and maintain profitability.
Maintain the "buy" rating. In the long run, the company is a leading enterprise in the global peg derivative industry, mastering the core technology of the whole industry chain of derivative production, and has obvious advantages in product quality and customer resources. It is expected to share the expansion bonus of PEG modification application market. In terms of profit forecast, considering the amortization of equity incentive expenses and the R & D investment of PEG irinotecan in research, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years was increased to 176 / 257 / 339 million yuan, corresponding to 88 / 60 / 46 times of the current PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning. The quantity of product orders is less than expected; The progress of customer cooperation is less than expected; New product development is not as expected; Competitive pressure is greater than expected.
