\u3000\u3000 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894)
Performance review
On January 24, Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 370 ~ 430 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.45% to + 56.25%, and a deduction of non net profit of 350 ~ 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.40% to + 58.61%. Corresponding to 2021q4, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 97 ~ 157 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.22% to + 30.96%, and the net profit deducted from non net profit of 98 ~ 158 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.85% to + 40.33%.
Business analysis
On the revenue side, the company achieved excellent results during the double 11, with the cumulative sales of the whole network exceeding 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56%, or the delivery of the company was delayed due to the excellent sales of E30 series and other new products, resulting in some double 11 revenue is expected to be recognized in 22q1. Therefore, it is expected that there will be better performance in the first quarter.
On the profit side, raw materials have shown a slight downward trend since the fourth quarter, but considering the inventory situation, it is expected that there may still be some pressure on the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter, and the profit improvement is expected to be gradually reflected in the first and second quarters of this year. At the same time, as the peak season of promotion, the fourth quarter is expected to improve the marketing investment. Excluding the impact of changes in income standards, the gross sales difference in the fourth quarter is expected to decrease slightly year-on-year. Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) is firmly in the leading position in the industry. With the continuous high-volume growth of subsequent integrated stoves and the gradual opening of the second growth curve of superimposed water washing, the income is expected to continue to increase, and the scale advantage is expected to promote the steady rise of profitability, which is optimistic for a long time.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
The penetration of integrated stove industry has been continuously verified and developed rapidly in recent years. As the leader of the first echelon of the industry, Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) not only enjoys the industry dividend, but also has the vision of long-term leading strategic pattern, firmly grasp the core elements of strong brand marketing and high-end product positioning, and its scale has expanded rapidly. We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.34 billion yuan, 3.16 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 45.0%, 34.8% and 33.1% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 400 million yuan, 550 million yuan and 730 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9%, 35.9% and 33.5% respectively. EPS is 1.00, 1.36 and 1.81 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 44.0x, 32.4x and 24.3x respectively from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The terminal consumption is weak, and the penetration rate is lower than expected; The risk of intensified industry competition; Risk of rising raw material prices; Risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
