\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (300841)
Event: the company released the forecast of the annual report for 21 years and realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 808-840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 98% - 106%, deducting the non net profit of 538-570 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34% - 41%. Among them, Q4 realized the deduction of non net profit of RMB 195-227 million, with a year-on-year increase of 225-278%.
The rapid growth of performance is in line with expectations. After the release of the production capacity of the second workshop of Q4, the performance of the company has significantly accelerated. We expect that the new production capacity will significantly increase the 22-year growth rate from 21q4. At the same time, according to the information in the prospectus, we expect that 5 million new production capacity of the company's raised and invested projects will also be implemented in about 23 years, which will further improve the company's performance. The company's pet vaccine has also gradually developed the market and contributed to the increment of performance. According to the company's official information, the company's pet rabies vaccine Hillis has entered 3000 pet hospitals.
The company's incentive plan shows confidence in future development. On April 19, 2011, the company issued the restricted stock incentive plan for 2021, which plans to grant 73 incentive objects, mainly middle-level managers and core backbones. It is expected that the total amount will not exceed 100000 shares, and the grant price is 202.80 yuan per share. The assessment objective is to take the net profit of 2020 as the base, and the net profit growth objectives of 21-23 years are 40%, 108% and 218%. The net profit is the value excluding the share based payment expenses of the company's equity incentive plan as the calculation basis. Calculated according to the 20-year base growth of 218% in 23 years, the target value for 23 years is 1.297 billion yuan, corresponding to the closing price of only 15x on August 2. The total amortization expense from 21 to 23 years is 20.54 million yuan, which has little impact on the company's performance. High growth shows the company's confidence in future development.
Profit forecast: according to the company's performance in 21 years and the promotion of the company's products, we adjusted the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 827 million yuan, 871 million yuan and 1.306 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 103%, 5% and 50%, corresponding to 24x, 23x and 15x PE respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: vaccine sales are lower than expected risks; New product R & D progress is lower than expected risk.
