\u3000\u3000 Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (603208)
The company issued a performance pre reduction announcement. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 212-276 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 35.15% to 50.11%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 175-227 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.32% to 55.63%.
The company holds 714 million yuan of relevant receivables of Evergrande, including 515 million yuan of overdue payment. Since July 21, Evergrande group and its member enterprises have successively defaulted on the commercial acceptance bills due. As of December 31, 21, the company held a total of 714 million yuan of relevant receivables of Evergrande: of which, 662 million yuan was notes receivable and 466 million yuan was overdue; Accounts receivable were 52 million yuan and overdue 49 million yuan. The company has evaluated the recoverability of relevant receivables and considered the possibility of impairment in this notice.
Affected by the real estate policy, the growth rate of new house sales / construction fell, and the demand of the engineering market slowed down.
With the gradual implementation of policies such as "housing without speculation" and "three red lines", the growth rate of the real estate market has slowed down as a whole. In 2021, the sales area of residential commercial housing in China was 1.565 billion square meters, up 1.1% year-on-year and 4.3% year-on-year; In 2021, the newly started residential area in China was 1.464 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% and 12.6% compared with 19 years. According to ovicloud, the cumulative number of newly opened hardbound rooms from January to November 2021 was 2.594 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. As of the first three quarters of the 21st century, the company's revenue from bulk channels was 1.686 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 3.8%, accounting for 80% of its main business. Affected by the real estate policy, the demand for engineering channels slowed down.
Marketing reform led to an increase in expenses. In the first three quarters of the 21st century, the sales expenses increased by 72% year-on-year.
The company vigorously promoted the marketing reform, strengthened the brand promotion of new media, and continued to enhance the brand influence of European style wooden door. Due to the change of consumers' decoration habits, the home decoration channel has become an important traffic entrance. Relying on the brand and product advantages, the company has synchronously developed store dealers and home decoration dealers to improve the market share. The marketing reform led to the rapid growth of sales expenses such as channel promotion expenses, sales personnel expenses, promotional materials expenses and product design publicity expenses. In the first three quarters of the 21st century, the sales expenses invested 197 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 72%, and the sales expense rate of 8.62%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.51pct.
Profit forecast and Valuation: considering the impact of Evergrande event on the company's performance, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in the 21st / 22nd year will be RMB 220 / 320 million respectively (the original value is RMB 410 / 540 million), a year-on-year increase of - 48% / + 45%, corresponding to PE of 40x / 27x, which is lowered to the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the forecast data is only preliminary accounting data. The risk of accounts receivable and notes withdrawal is intensified, the industry competition is intensified, the capacity release is less than expected, and the channel expansion is less than expected
