Today, the market is still normal. Two points are the over fall and rebound of lithium battery stocks. For example, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ) have risen sharply, and the rising pace of lithium carbonate price is still continuing. Strangely, lithium battery stocks have continued to fall recently, and interestingly, pig prices are falling, but pig concept stocks have been rising recently. Why? It’s not surprising to think about it carefully. The market is essentially speculation. Lithium battery concept stocks have continued to rise sharply before. In fact, they have reflected the rise of lithium carbonate price in advance. Now, even if the price of lithium carbonate is still rising, the market expectation is not as strong as before. Instead, they are on guard against the possibility of turning around; The previous continuous sharp decline of pig concept stocks has nearly reflected the decline of pork prices in advance. Even though meat prices are still falling, the market expects that it is possible to turn from decline to rise in the future.
The market is so strange, rational and realistic. This phenomenon once again enlightens us: to make a good investment, we really need to be forward-looking. Only by predicting in advance and holding patiently, can we absorb enough chips at the bottom, and then wait for the sharp rise of stock price.
Today’s A-share market is led by tourism stocks, which have increased a lot recently. The most fundamental expectation is that after covid-19 epidemic virus is controlled, both Chinese and overseas tours can reverse the bottom. Although this day has not really come, the market expectation is getting closer and closer to this day after all, which is another expectation!
At present, there are two main lines in the market. One is the concept of steady growth, such as real estate, infrastructure, furniture, building materials, steel, chemical industry and coal. The rise of real estate stocks is led by regional real estate leaders, or there are many property assets, which has been said many times before, such as Tieling Newcity Investment Holding (Group) Limited(000809) (000809. SZ), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (002244. SZ) and so on, On the contrary, the share prices of large real estate enterprises are falling, or the increase is obviously lagging behind.
The typical feature of stable growth concept stocks is low valuation, but it is only a rebound, not a reversal.
The other is the rebound after the short run of the track stocks, such as the new energy and lithium battery stocks that rebound today, but these stocks are highly valued, and they will also digest the valuation bubble in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, track stocks will continue to reach new highs.
Pay close attention to the disk. The biggest investment theme this year is likely to be digital economy concept stocks. The most typical is the software service sector. Software stocks have fallen for more than a year in the past, and the overall valuation level is very low; Secondly, the digital economy has been proposed again recently, which has lit a fire in policy; Third, in terms of industrial automation, 5g, energy Internet, Internet of vehicles, artificial intelligence, including meta universe, the renewal and iteration of information technology of “infrastructure”, the rise last year was mainly raw materials, while this year’s rise will be mainly operation. There were a lot of production capacity launched last year, but the most important thing after the launch of production capacity is operation, The demand for software services will increase greatly. Therefore, the software service sector is likely to be the largest investment theme this year.
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