The controlling shareholder of China Mobile announced that it would increase its A-share holdings with 3-5 billion yuan and set no upper limit on the share price. Stimulated by the news, China Mobile A shares, which have been hovering around the issue price, rose 1.06% on Monday and rose as high as 2% in the session. then, can the increased holdings of mobile group get rid of the embarrassment of breaking its a shares?
Many people think that China Mobile Group has no choice but to increase its holdings of a shares. The "green shoe mechanism" will soon fail for time reasons. Once it fails, China Mobile is likely to repeat the mistakes of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) .
but in fact, even without the increase of controlling shareholders, from the perspective of enterprise fundamentals, the share price performance of mobile A shares will be much stronger than that of Telecom.
In 2021, the revenue of Telecom is about 400 billion yuan, and the net profit is only more than 20 billion yuan. The revenue of mobile is more than 800 billion yuan, and the net profit reaches 120 billion yuan. In terms of profitability, mobile is far better than Telecom.
The reason why telecom broke is more due to the downward traction of its H shares. At present, the share price of Telecom H shares is only HK $2.96, equivalent to about 2.4 yuan, and the share price of A-Shares is 1.78 times that of H shares; The ratio of the share price of mobile A shares to its share price of H shares is about 1.4 times.
Combined with the fundamental situation, telecom A shares are still undergoing consolidation, and its breaking situation is short-term or difficult to change.
for the market, whether the increase of mobile controlling shareholders can really stimulate the share price of a shares, so as to lead the start of technology big blue chip and bring the whole A shares out of the market decline situation is a progressive relationship at all levels.
First, can the increase of mobile controlling shareholders really stimulate the A-share price? The mobile group will spend 3-5 billion yuan to increase its holdings of a shares. The deadline is the end of this year, and there is no upper limit on the share price.
so how many mobile A shares can you buy for 3 to 5 billion yuan? according to its current share price of about 58 yuan, it can buy about 80 million shares. At present, the tradable shares of mobile A shares are about 470 million, that is, if the mobile group increases its holdings, it can buy about one sixth of the current mobile A shares. Considering that many institutions will actively buy mobile A shares, there are not many circulation chips left in the market, Mobile Group's increase in holdings is still relatively large.
secondly, can mobile lead the launch of A-share technology blue chip? investors can imagine where the market is when China Mobile returns? If there is a rising market in the future, which heavyweight sector or stock has leading potential? Is it the banking sector that has been hovering? Or has it risen ten times and dozens of times Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ? They may not be big.
What about China Mobile? It is the mobile operator with the largest number of customers in the world and the most profitable operator in China. It seems to have a more "benchmark" temperament than the previous ones in terms of industry prosperity, enterprise status in the industry, enterprise's own scientific and technological content and valuation.
the third is whether it can take A-Shares out of the trading situation that has hovered at 3500 for a long time? This is relatively more difficult, because although China Mobile ranks in the top 10 in market value, its sector effect may not be very strong. Even if China Mobile, telecom and China Unicom rise together, it seems difficult to pry the 5g sector of the whole A-share, let alone the large technology sector.
From this point of view, it is enough that mobile can play a role in stabilizing the military center locally. Think about it, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) have increased more than 10 times, but it has only driven several waves of Baijiu and new energy lithium batteries, which has little effect on the overall fluctuation of the A share market.
of course, if A-Shares usher in a wave of technology stock market in the future, the mainstay role of mobile may still be obvious.
