How to treat the financial returns of large funds with low odds and high returns when investing in semiconductors

Since the first reduction at the end of 2019, the national integrated circuit industry fund Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "big fund phase I") is accelerating into the harvest season.

According to the incomplete statistics of the first financial reporter, the first phase of the large fund reduced its holdings of at least 11 A-share semiconductor companies in 2021, with a cash set of about 8 billion yuan in a single year. Relevant research reports pointed out that in June 2021, the investment cost of 138.7 billion yuan in the first phase of the large fund has recovered about 15 billion yuan.

Large funds make equity investment in enterprises, avoiding the form of government subsidies. In a variety of investment models, ultra-low investment costs have become a sharp weapon for large funds to "reap" high returns, and there are not a few stocks with a return of more than 5 times.

Large funds shoulder the mission of promoting the development of domestic semiconductor industry chain. From the development momentum of the whole industry since the first phase of investment, the role of large funds can not be ignored. Needless to say, in individual investment cases, the first phase of large funds also invested guided by the huge price difference income in the primary and secondary markets. At present, it is in the second year of the investment layout of the second phase of the large fund, and the second phase is expected to pry trillions of social funds. "The greater the ability, the greater the responsibility", what the market ultimately wants to see is a large national fund to promote semiconductor technology and scale.

the investment cost is low and the modes are diverse. The first phase of large funds "only earn but not lose"

In order to promote the development of China's integrated circuit industry, the first phase of the large fund was established in 2014, with an investment scale of 138.7 billion yuan, leveraging a total of more than 500 billion social funds.

In May 2018, the first phase of the large fund was fully invested, covering the top enterprises in all links of the industrial chain such as manufacturing, design, sealing and testing, equipment and materials, with investment proportions of 63%, 20%, 10% and 7% respectively. There are about 70 effective investment projects, including 23 publicly invested companies and 29 undisclosed companies. Some companies have received multiple investments at different stages.

It is reported that the first phase of the large fund adopts a two-tier management structure. The first tier management structure is the national integrated circuit industry investment fund Co., Ltd., which is responsible for grasping the strategic direction, promoting the approval of major projects, policies and major issues, and balancing the rights and interests of all parties; The second layer of management structure is Huaxin investment led by CDB finance, which implements market-oriented management of funds.

Participation in fixed increase, agreement transfer, establishment of M & A fund, capital increase and joint venture are the main ways for the fund to invest in the equity of semiconductor companies. The first phase of large fund mainly focuses on capital increase and fixed increase.

With the investment cost far lower than the share price of the secondary market, the first phase of the large fund obtained considerable investment income. According to the Research Report of Huachuang securities, as of June 16, 2021, among the more than 20 semiconductor listed companies invested by the large fund in phase I, only four stocks have an investment profit margin (floating profit / initial investment) of less than 50%, which means that the probability of large fund investment less than 50% is only 5%. In addition, the profit margins of National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) - u, Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) are more than 500%, and the profit margins of Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) and Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) are more than 12 times.

The equity investment in the pre IPO stage brings the most lucrative returns to large funds. Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) is the first chip company officially invested after the establishment of the first phase of the large fund. The company is mainly engaged in general consumables chips and printer SOC chips. In 2015, the first phase of large fund invested 140 million yuan in Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) pre IPO stage. In 2017, Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) was issued and landed on the gem at the price of 8.48 yuan / share. As of the latest closing date, the company's share price has risen 27.72 times since its listing (including the rise and fall on the first day of listing), and the share price was reported to 151.41 yuan.

Statistics show that in March 2020, the first reduction of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) was completed in the first phase of the large fund, with cash out of about 96.85 million yuan; In 2021, the first phase of the large fund reduced Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) 3.6 million shares again, with an average reduction price of 132.62 yuan and a single cash out of 477 million yuan. So far, the reduction amount has far covered the investment cost.

As of January 10, 2022, the first phase of large fund held Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) a total of 22.7235 million shares, accounting for 12.48% of the total share capital of the company, with a corresponding market value of 3.8 billion. The fund plans to continue to reduce its holdings of Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) 3642400 shares in 2022, that is, no more than 2% of the company's total share capital.

Companies invested by the large fund in pre IPO in phase I also include semiconductor etcher leaders Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012. SH), Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) (688019. SH), Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) (300604. SZ).

According to statistics, the first phase of the large fund has invested nearly 36.7 billion yuan in 20 listed companies. As of January 26, 2021, the stock market value has risen to 95.9 billion, and the return on investment is about 262%. Market analysts said that the higher valuation of the secondary market will be conducive to the future benefits of government capital subsidies, because the profit increment brought by subsidies will bring higher capital gains under the overvalued value.

boost industrial development maximize investment income

IC industry has the characteristics of long R & D cycle, intensive high-end talents and slow profit realization. Huge capital investment is the objective law of industrial development.

From the perspective of industrial chain development, the role of large fund financial investment in promoting is obvious to all. According to relevant research reports, the total revenue of secondary market listed companies invested in phase I increased from less than 30 billion yuan in 2014 to 100 billion yuan in 2018, with a four-year compound annual growth rate of 36.9%.

Take Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) as an example, in 2015, Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) achieved revenue and net profit attributable to parent company after deduction of Non Profits of RMB 360 million and 31 million respectively; In the first three quarters of 2021, the two data of the company reached 1.876 billion yuan and 163 million yuan respectively. Even considering the promotion of the company's performance by the ultra-high outlook of the semiconductor industry in 2021, the growth rate in the past six years is remarkable.

In addition to Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) and Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) which have been reduced for many times have developed into the head enterprises in their respective segments.

It can be seen that the first phase of the large fund has made a lot of money. However, under the market-oriented operation, the fund also has individual investment cases that pursue investment return and ignore industrial development.

IDM leading China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) (688396. SH) landed on the science and innovation board in February 2020, and the strategic placement of large fund phase I was 1 billion yuan, corresponding to 78.125 million shares. China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) on January 19, it was announced that the holdings of large funds in phase I had been reduced by more than half, and 5899400 shares had been reduced, with a total amount of 410 million yuan. At present, the market value of China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) held by the fund has exceeded 5 billion.

"In individual cases, large funds aim at the cost price of pre IPO and the ultra-high returns brought by the listing certainty of semiconductor companies.

The semiconductor sector in the secondary market has always been dominated by periodic market. No matter how individual stocks fluctuate, referring to the investment cost, it is almost a business that only makes no loss. " A relevant person in charge of TMT industry investment in the primary market told reporters that " China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) 20 years of development has been relatively mature. Large funds participate in placement more for financial investment return, which is essentially different from investing in enterprises in the cultivation stage or participating in the construction of key projects."

In the view of the above investors, although the reduction of large funds is a routine operation, the reduction should not be guided by the pursuit of greater investment returns, but should be based on the investment needs of the project.

"On the one hand, the reduction and withdrawal is to adjust the capital structure of phase I to facilitate phase II reinvestment. On the other hand, it is to transfer funds from enterprises that have achieved certain technological breakthroughs to enterprises that need more funds, which requires investment based on the demands of industrial chain development and accelerating breakthroughs in the 'neck' link." The above investors told reporters.

In October 2019, the second phase of the national fund was launched. This time, it will focus on investing in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials, raising a total of about 200 billion yuan. At present, the second phase of big fund has entered Ziguang zhanrui, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , SMIC south, SMIC capital, Ruili integration, Hefei Peyton storage, Changchuan manufacturing, aiparker, Zhixin micro, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Guangzhou Huizhi micro, Galaxycore Inc(688728) , Baiwei storage, Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) and other companies, some of which have been listed and some have clear plans to apply for listing.

"The fundamental purpose of the establishment of a large fund is to promote the development of the industrial chain. The fund is also the investment vane of the secondary market. If we blindly pursue financial reporting, it will not only go against the original intention, but also lead to the atmosphere of semiconductor investment market." The investors added.

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