Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. in the short term, after continuous adjustment, high growth track stocks rebounded, and the overall cost performance began to highlight. Blue chips have added support to the market. Against the backdrop of fundamentals and liquidity, the market has not changed.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and fluctuated after the opening. Since then, under the leadership of subject stocks, the index once rebounded, while under the pull of heavyweights, the index turned red smoothly, and the performance of the three indexes was eye-catching. In the afternoon, the Shanghai index sorted out near the red market position, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose again, with a strong overall performance. On the disk, power equipment led the rise, with non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical industries leading the rise, while food and beverage, medicine and biology, textile and clothing and light industry manufacturing fell.
Throughout the day, although heavyweights are differentiated, their overall performance is stable. The growth track stocks that had been continuously adjusted ushered in a rebound, and the performance of subject stocks also boosted market confidence. Previously, the gem has been operating below the annual line for many days, and the Shanghai stock index has just fallen below the annual line. At this time, if the subject stocks rebound, with the stable support of heavyweights, the market rebound is still worth looking forward to. The possible rebound here is still due to the support of fundamentals and the boost of liquidity.
On the one hand, after the release of economic data last year, the phased recovery of the economy brought confidence to the market. When the fundamentals are stable, the overall market can be expected; On the other hand, under the central bank’s RRR reduction and “interest rate reduction”, the easing cycle has begun. Boosted by the expectation of liquidity easing, the market trend for the better has not changed, and we continue to be optimistic about the spring market.
In the configuration of the spring market, we can pay attention to two main lines: one is the high growth varieties with excellent performance after continuous adjustment. For example, in terms of performance, concepts such as lithium mine, which rose sharply in the morning. Throughout the day, concept stocks such as lithium mine and lithium extraction from Salt Lake rose sharply. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) recently released the annual performance forecast for 2021. Its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3880 million yuan – 4280 million yuan, an increase of 90.24% – 109.85% over the same period last year. In fact, today’s stock price limit was also boosted by the performance. The annual report is coming soon, and the varieties with high growth and excellent performance are still worthy of key tracking; In addition, blue chips are still undervalued. Since December last year, undervalued blue chips have been favored by market funds and received continuous attention from foreign investors. With the opening of the monetary easing cycle, there is a strong expectation of valuation improvement and make-up.
On the whole, the economic stage bottomed out, and monetary policy also ushered in loose signals. Under the support and boost of the market, the logic of the overall improvement has not changed. The stock market is a barometer of money. The monetary easing policy has been started, and the signal is also obvious. Therefore, there is no need to worry about liquidity in at least the first quarter, which will also support and boost the spring market to a certain extent. Although the adjustment since the beginning of the year has slightly exceeded expectations, it is still a good allocation opportunity under the medium-term positive trend.
