In the past two weeks, the views in our weekly newspaper were “wait a little longer” and “a little less”, but the severity of the market still exceeded expectations.
The next week is the final stage of the disclosure of the annual report forecast. Companies with poor performance tend to make the final announcement. Superimposed with the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in the last week, the market may enter a state of despair.
But vitality is also bred here: considering that the market is at the lower edge of the range of shock pattern in the two-dimensional framework of [credit profit], at the same time, the yield difference of CSI 500 bonds breaks the extreme value of – 2x standard deviation, and the decline of NASDAQ has exceeded the average decline caused by denominator side factors, the market may usher in a good oversold rebound after the Spring Festival.
In terms of direction, first, TMT (smart car, metauniverse, 5g + industrial Internet, Huawei supply chain and ecosystem) that may become the main line of the whole year, second, the oversold rebound of boom track (energy storage, battery, lithium mine, military industry, etc.), and third, the new investment direction in steady growth (nuclear power, hydrogen energy, etc.).
In last week’s report “update of key indicators: 500 share bond yield difference is close to triggering the buying signal”, we proposed that CSI 500 is approaching the buying point. In this paper, we add 5 questions and 5 answers to the situation of CSI 500:
1. How much impact does the external falling factors have on the 500 buying points?
2. What are the main weights and valuation levels of the current 500?
3. What factors lead to the stock bond yield difference of 500 hitting – 2x standard deviation?
4. What does it mean to break the – 2x standard deviation under the yield difference of 500 stock bonds?
5. Which industrial chains are expected to support the performance of 500?
Risk tips: macroeconomic risk, epidemic risk outside China, risk of performance falling short of expectations, etc.
