Ping An View:
Hong Kong stocks performed strongly last week, with global stock markets falling more and rising less. Most global stock markets fell last week, and emerging markets performed relatively better than developed markets. In developed markets, the three major US stock indexes fell sharply, among which the NASDAQ index fell the most, with a weekly rise and fall of - 7.55%; Among emerging markets, Brazil's stock index has the strongest performance, leading emerging markets with an increase of 1.88%; The Hong Kong stock market represented by the Hang Seng Index performed strongly, with a weekly rise and fall of 2.39%.
The Hong Kong stock industry rose almost across the board, led by the real estate construction industry. Last week, the Hong Kong stock industry sector rose almost across the board, with only industry, health care and public utilities falling slightly. The real estate construction industry led the rise, with a weekly increase of more than 6.22%, followed by the essential consumption industry, information technology industry, raw materials industry, finance industry and energy industry, with an increase or decrease of 2.98%, 2.85%, 2.78%, 2.54% and 2.49%; Overall, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks last week was strong, and most sectors performed brightly.
Employment and consumption fell, and the US economy showed signs of peaking and falling. From the number of people receiving unemployment benefits hit a new high in recent months and retail sales turned negative month on month, it can be seen that employment and consumption in the United States have fallen, and sales will be lower under the influence of high inflation. The continuous spread of Omicron mutant has also brought a certain negative impact on the offline service industry in the United States, leading to the peak fall of the U.S. economy and the strengthening of expectations. At the same time, inflation expectations and 10-year US bond interest rates also fell slightly from a high level. As one of the economies with the highest relative prosperity in the global economy, the signs of the peak decline of the U.S. economy have also had a negative impact on other developed economies with weaker prosperity and even most emerging economies.
Hong Kong stocks have significant undervaluation advantages and outstanding investment opportunities. With the rise of risk-free interest rate and the high expectation of tightening liquidity, combined with the combined impact of epidemic disturbance and falling demand, the global stock market, including US stocks, fell significantly on a large scale. However, the Hong Kong stock market represented by the Hang Seng Index bucked the trend and became the leader in the rise of the global stock market. Under the background that the continuous decline of the Hang Seng Index in the past has brought significant undervaluation advantages, Hong Kong stocks may also be driven by the marginal improvement of three factors: the pressure on the mainland economy, the tightening of overseas liquidity and China US relations. In addition, the absolute valuation and relative valuation of Hang Seng index have significant advantages, which are more obvious than other stock indexes in the world. The structure is also continuously improving, and there are valuation repair opportunities.
Pay attention to the three main lines of logic, and the state-owned enterprise sector deserves attention. From the perspective of the industry, there are three main lines of opportunities for HSI valuation repair. First, valuation repair in the field of dilemma reversal. The probability of financial real estate will usher in the valuation repair market, but it is still difficult to reverse upward; The Internet sector is facing the situation that the policy bottom is not clear, but the periodic valuation repair space can also be seen. Second, the profit expectation in the boom field has improved. The new infrastructure industry chain and consumption segmentation leaders (food and beverage, functional clothing, daily groceries, self pleasing consumption and other segmentation fields) deserve attention. Third, the areas of policy support and the direction of reform. The state-owned enterprise sector will usher in the opportunity of valuation repair and even revaluation, especially in the key areas of state-owned enterprise reform in recent years, such as energy, industry, metals, finance, transportation and public utilities.
Risk tips: 1) covid-19 epidemic further increases the impact; 2) The global fiscal stimulus is less than expected or the monetary tightening is faster than expected; 3) The macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; 4) Overseas market volatility intensified.
