Main points:
Core view: before we really see the stabilization of the economy, the market will always stand on the side of "stable growth", and there is still room for the value sector (infrastructure chain + undervalued value). In addition to the order data counted in our previous report, the latest annual report performance forecast further confirms the warming trend of "infrastructure chain". The three rounds of infrastructure construction bank in history show that the market of infrastructure chain will not end until the economy really bottoms out and picks up. Undervaluation repair starts when the differentiation between high and low valuations reaches the quantile line of 80%, and the market will end when it is generally reduced to 60%. The interest rate cut further catalyzes the undervalued market. At present, the degree of differentiation has been reduced to 70%, and the depression has not been filled up. Pay close attention to the pre holiday configuration window period, and the new and old infrastructure + undervalued value ("bank land insurance + coal") still has configuration value.
Value outperforms growth. In the last issue of weekly report "warm at first, cold at first, interest rate reduction can be expected", we proposed that "the economy continues to decline, the market is in a weak position, pay attention to the steady growth of the industrial chain and the repair of undervalued value after interest rate reduction". Last week (0117-0121), the infrastructure industry chain and undervalued sectors led the market, and growth stocks continued to callback. Although monetary easing increased (double interest rate cuts + the central bank's strong easing statement), it did not reverse the weakening trend of growth stocks. Monetary easing is not a sufficient condition for rebound. What the market buys is the possibility of stable growth landing. Therefore, it is deduced along the most likely "infrastructure chain" and the "undervalued value" where the valuation is on the floor. Before seeing signs of economic stabilization, the market will always stand on the side of "stable growth", and the value sector (infrastructure chain + undervalued value) is always better than growth stocks.
The transaction structure is also biased towards value. In terms of incremental funds, the performance price ratio of heavy warehouse stocks (mainly growth stocks) that have been brilliant in the past few years is decreasing. The median rate of return of partial equity funds in 19 and 20 years reached 37% and 49%, which is much higher than that of the whole A. if you choose to purchase the fund "lying flat", you can get the best return. In 21 years, the median rate of return of equity funds decreased to 6.7%, and it was impossible to buy funds lying flat. The growth rate of issued shares of public funds fell to - 5.26%. The excess return rate of the fund is generally one quarter ahead of the issuance. The pressure of the issuance decline in 2022q1 is obvious, and the incremental chip space is rapidly compressed. In terms of stock funds, public funds are also switching between high and low valuations. The position increase of public funds is in the undervalued sector, but there is no continuous position increase in the previous heavy positions. 2021q3 non banking, household appliances and real estate are the three industries with the largest month on month increase in the proportion of fund positions. As of the data disclosed on the 22nd, 2021q4 real estate has also become a key industry to increase positions. From the perspective of funds from the north, the net inflow of banks has reached 18.1 billion yuan since January, which is the industry with the largest net inflow in a single month. Previous special report "how strong is the alpha of northbound funds?" The historical verification data show that "tracking the large net inflow of northward funds is highly effective in predicting the future market". When the net inflow of a single industry exceeds 10 billion yuan in a single month, the rising probability of the next month is 81.8%.
The balance continues to shift to value, and the infrastructure chain and undervalued market are far from over. 1、 Infrastructure chain: the signs of recovery are more clear, and the market is still accelerating. Previously, we counted that the order data of large central enterprises recovered in 2021q4 (one quarter ahead of the growth rate of infrastructure investment). As of January 22, 642 companies had been disclosed in the annual report of 21 years. In terms of performance forecast, the growth rate of new and old infrastructure performance is significantly warmer than Q3. The market of infrastructure chain often starts from the stimulus policy and ends when the economic data actually bottoms out and picks up. This is true for several times in history (2008 / 9-2009 / 4, 2014 / 11-2015 / 6, 2019 / 7-2020 /). At present, the market of infrastructure industry chain is far from over. Focus on the development direction of new and old infrastructure: rail transit equipment, consumer building materials (municipal pipes and waterproof materials), UHV and charging pile; 2、 Underestimated value: the depression has not been filled. In the monetary easing cycle, the period when the differentiation between high and low valuations reaches the extreme (the degree of differentiation reaches 80%) is the prerequisite for the rebound of undervalued values, while the differentiation drops to 60% and the valuation repair ends. Since mid November, the differentiation of high and undervalued values has reached 80%. Last week's interest rate cut stimulated the undervalued sector to further warm up. At present, the degree of differentiation is 70%. There is still room for the valuation repair of the undervalued sector. The main line of undervaluation continues to focus on: Yindi insurance + coal.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is not up to expectations, the macro-economy fluctuates more than expected, the epidemic development is more than expected, and the policy changes are more than expected.
