One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the global epidemic is still spreading, and the epidemic prevention policies of various countries are polarized. In the last week, about 20 million and 49000 new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide. Compared with the previous week, the new confirmed cases increased by 6.3% and the new deaths increased by 3.4%. This week, the total amount of global vaccination decreased slightly, recording 240 million doses, with a 7-day average decrease of 24% compared with last week. Among them, the amount of vaccination in the United States decreased by 48% compared with last week, and the amount of vaccination in Europe decreased by 18% compared with last week. About 880 million doses of booster shots have been inoculated worldwide, and the global vaccination rate of booster shots is 11.3%. In order to control the spread of covid-19 virus, the U.S. government provided 400 million non-medical N95 masks to the public free of charge from its national strategic reserve, and increased the procurement of 500 million covid-19 testing reagents. But at the same time, the British government took negative epidemic prevention measures. Prime Minister Johnson announced the end of the “plan B” plan implemented in December and the cancellation of all epidemic prevention measures, including mask injunction, work at home and vaccine pass.
Overseas: the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve continues to heat up, and the European Central Bank may not raise interest rates. Many Fed officials continued to release the signal of raising interest rates. Chicago Fed chairman Evans predicted that the Fed would raise interest rates 2-4 times this year, while fed director Brenner made it clear at the hearing that “inflation in the United States is too high” and was open to raising interest rates since March this year, saying that interest rates could be raised once the T aper ended. The European Central Bank may not raise interest rates. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that prices should stabilize and gradually ease in 2022, and will see signs of easing supply chain problems. There is no reason for Europe to act like the Fed. The manufacturing index of the US Federal Reserve fluctuated, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the UK hit a new high. US retail sales fell significantly month on month in December. New home construction and new home construction permits in the United States reached new highs.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose and international oil prices rebounded. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month, with the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables rising and the average price of 7 key monitored fruits rising. The average price of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rebounded this week, and the prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar rose.
Liquidity: short-term interest rate differentiation, the US dollar index rebounded. The short-term capital interest rate is differentiated. The weekly average of dr001 is down 2.1bp month on month, and the weekly average of dr007 is down 1.1bp month on month. This week, the weekly average of the three-month Shibor interest rate and the three-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased month on month. The interest rate of bills decreased, and the weekly average of 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver bills decreased. This week, the central bank launched a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. The 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired, 700 billion yuan MLF was put in, and 500 billion yuan MLF expired; Next week, the central bank’s open market operation will have 500 billion yuan of reverse repo due. The dollar index rebounded this week and the RMB rose slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: US stocks fell across the board and treasury bond yields fell. Hong Kong stocks continued to rebound this week, and the main indexes of US stocks fell significantly this week. In terms of China’s equity, the top three industries this week were computer, banking and food and beverage. This week, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 5.6bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds decreased by 8.7bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
