Key investment points:
The economic growth rate decreased, but the GDP target of most provinces still exceeded 5.5%
1) looking back on 2021, nearly 80% of the provinces completed or exceeded the targets set at the beginning of the year.
2) looking forward to 2022, most provinces have lowered their economic growth targets under the "triple pressure", but nearly 90% of the provinces still have a GDP target of more than 5.5%.
3) according to the past local GDP target and national GDP target, the national economic growth target in 2022 may be between 5-5.5%.
Actively expand effective investment and make joint efforts for new and old infrastructure
1) judging from the provinces that have announced the growth rate of fixed asset investment, more than half of the provinces have maintained or increased the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022. In addition, judging from the provinces that have published comparable data, the investment plans in 2022 are significantly higher than those in 2021.
2) in terms of specific efforts, both the traditional infrastructure based on "railway public infrastructure" and the new infrastructure based on "base station" and "charging pile" have made great efforts.
Take multiple measures to promote consumption, and a new round of "home appliances to the countryside" is expected to start
In 2022, all provinces generally proposed to promote the sustained recovery of consumption, including traditional consumption, new consumption and rural consumption: 1) consolidate and improve traditional consumption and stabilize the consumption of traditional bulk commodities such as cars, furniture and household appliances.
2) vigorously develop new consumption modes such as live e-commerce, social e-commerce, first store economy and shared consumption, and further tap the consumption potential.
3) promote the upgrading of rural consumption echelons, promote the upgrading of rural durable consumer goods, implement a new round of replacing old household appliances with new ones, and carry out the action of new energy vehicles, smart household appliances and green building materials to the countryside.
Promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and usher in an important development opportunity for the digital economy
1) many provinces have clearly proposed to promote industrial transformation and upgrading and accelerate the transformation of old and new kinetic energy. Among them, advanced manufacturing, modern service industry and digital economy are important starting points for industrial transformation.
2) with the accelerated layout of all provinces, the digital economy may usher in important development opportunities. Several provinces have defined the growth target of digital economy. For example, Henan Province has proposed to strive for the growth of digital economy by more than 15%.
"Housing is not fried" to maintain concentration, shed reform, affordable housing marginal force
Judging from the currently published statements on real estate in all provinces, "housing, housing and non speculation" still remains determined, and all provinces mentioned to vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing. Compared with the affordable housing actually completed in 2021, the construction objectives of all provinces in 2022 have been improved to varying degrees.
The "double carbon" plan, coordinated regional development and Rural Revitalization have been steadily promoted
1) promote the "double carbon" plan, with more emphasis on stability and order. 2) Achieve a higher level of regional coordinated development. 3) Consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and comprehensively promote rural revitalization. 4) Focus on preventing and resolving risks in key areas.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic and industrial policies have changed more than expected.
