Market Review
In the five trading days last week (0117-0121), the building materials (CITIC) index rose 2.42% and the CSI 300 rose 1.11%. Among the building materials sub sectors, other decorative building materials and cement performed relatively well. Among individual stocks, Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (11.41%), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (10.54%), Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) (9.34%), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (8.20%), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (8.03%) led the increase.
What positive changes have taken place at the policy end and how will they affect building materials?
At the annual meeting of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development last week, it was specially pointed out that the potential of residents' housing demand should be fully released, and the subsequent demand side regulation policies may be loosened, and the demand side outlook is expected to usher in a recovery; In terms of affordable housing, it is required to continue to promote the structural reform of housing supply side, and it is clear that 2.4 million affordable housing units will be built in 2022. Last week, according to the focus financial news, we should relax the supervision on the pre-sale funds of real estate developers. If the final policy is implemented, it is expected to alleviate the shortage of funds of real estate developers. We judge that Q1 real estate fundamentals are expected to gradually hit the bottom and rebound, and the improvement trend at the policy side may continue. After 22h1, the fundamentals of consumer building materials are expected to benefit from the recovery of real estate and the decline of their own base.
Last week, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on financial statistics, which mentioned that "open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger", "take the initiative to find good projects", "move forward" and so on, which further released a positive signal of steady growth. During the week, the central bank cut the reverse repo and MLF interest rates by 10 BPs, and cut the 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR interest rates by 10 / 5 BPS respectively. The landing effect of steady growth is expected to be gradually reflected. At the current time point, we continue to be optimistic about the spring market of building materials driven by steady growth. Last week, there was an obvious rebound in the consumer building materials sector. Among the sectors, waterproof and pipe materials ranked first. In the follow-up, we continue to be optimistic about the structural opportunities brought by the improvement of the prosperity of sub industries such as affordable housing and water conservancy pipe network. At the same time, we emphasize the recommendation of ceramic tiles again: we believe that affected by the "double carbon and double control" policy, The clearing intensity of ceramic tile supply side may be greater (the only sub industry classified as high energy consumption in consumer building materials). The performance of Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) 22 years of B + C two wheel drive is expected to achieve rapid growth, and the current valuation is more cost-effective.
Actively grasp the restless market of the Spring Festival and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass industry is at a low level. Next year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance. The downward space of the unit profit of float glass is limited. Photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the landscape of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad Co., Ltd. are recommended for the pipeline; Recommended cement Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) for glass fiber;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
