In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, and the whole year exceeded expectations. In mid December, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market reached 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 120.0% and 113.9%. In 2021, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 159.5% and 157.5%, and the overall production and sales exceeded expectations. In terms of brands and models, Byd Company Limited(002594) has dominated the list of new energy vehicle manufacturers, with outstanding performance of new forces in vehicle manufacturing, continuous launch of high-quality models and further improvement of market prosperity. It is estimated that the sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 450000 in January 2022, and it is expected to exceed 6 million in the whole year.
The production, marketing and loading volume of power batteries reached a new high, and the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate exceeded RMB 3. In December, the loading volume of power battery was 26.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102.4% and a month on month increase of 25.9%. In 2021, the annual production and sales of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries were 219.7gwh and 186gwh respectively, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 163.4% and 182.3%, and the cumulative loading volume reached 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 142.8%. On the whole, the industry concentration is obvious, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranks first in the loading volume. From the perspective of technical route, the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate accounts for 51.7% of the total loading volume in 2021, realizing the comprehensive anti exceeding three yuan. At present, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranks first in the global loading volume, and the global competitiveness of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises is prominent. In terms of production scheduling, the production capacity of downstream enterprises has been steadily promoted, the demand for raw materials is rising, and the output continues to increase.
With the rapid growth of charging infrastructure and the layout of power exchange, the evolution of power battery market is accelerated. From the perspective of charging infrastructure, the number of public charging piles in China in December was 1.147 million, an increase of 42.1% year-on-year and 5.05% month on month. In 2021, the increment of charging infrastructure is 936000 units, which is 1:3.7 compared with the increment of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of charging capacity, the charging capacity of national public charging piles reached 1.171 billion kwh in December, an increase of 42% year-on-year and 8.3% month on month. On the whole, at present, the construction area of charging piles in China is relatively concentrated, and the concentration of charging power is high. The implementation of relevant policies and plans drives the promotion of power exchange facilities. Among the top 10 regions, Guangdong Province ranks first in the number of public charging piles and charging power, while Beijing ranks first in the total number of power exchange stations, and the number of power exchange stations of major power exchange operators continues to increase. All manufacturers actively arranged charging and replacement services, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched the overall solution of combined power replacement, and Weilai continued to layout the field of power replacement and accelerate the process of industrial electrification.
Investment suggestions: 1) the long-term competition pattern is better and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: A. battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; b. Diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; c. Thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ; d. High voltage DC: Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) etc. 2) 4680 technology iteration, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain. Key points: A. large cylindrical shell: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ; b. High nickel cathode: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ; c. Layout lifsi: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . 3) Look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. Focus on: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) upstream raw materials rose more than expected. If the prices of upstream lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and nickel cobalt manganese metal rise more than expected, it may affect the downstream demand. 2) The terminal demand is lower than expected. The decline of subsidies and changes in consumers’ disposable income may affect end demand.
