Precious metals: the political crisis pushed up the risk aversion of gold, and the gold price remained short. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds first rose and then fell, falling slightly to 1.75% from 1.78%. Since August, the overall upward channel trend has not changed. The US bond yield rising with the expectation of us tightening constitutes the long-term pressure of gold. On the news front, the tense situation on the border between Russia and Ukraine intensified, which pushed up the gold risk aversion in the short term, and the gold price continued to rebound slightly during the week. If the regional conflict does not develop into a large-scale risk event, gold may fall back to the platform shock range after the short-term mood is relieved; ② Inflation expectation: this week, the implied inflation in the US bond market decreased to 2.34% from 2.44%, and the real interest rate increased to – 0.59% from – 0.66% during the week. Although the implied inflation rate of US bonds has moved down, the US CPI has continued to rise higher than expected in recent months, including the continuous rebound in the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil. It is difficult to falsify the continued upward trend of short-term inflation. At present, the market has formed consistent expectations for the US interest rate increase policy, and the short-term view of gold is maintained at the current time point.
Base metals: spot trading is coming to an end, and the inventory trend before the festival is divided. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of China’s one-year loan market was 3.7%, down 10bp from the previous month; LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5bp from the previous month, continuing to release growth signals, commodity demand is expected to continue to repair, and metals generally rose; ② In terms of supply, overseas mining enterprises welcome the quarterly report. Compared with 2021, the guiding output of Rio Tinto copper mine in 2022 increased by 75000 tons to 500000-575000 tons, and the cathode copper increased by 40000-80000 tons to 230000-29000 tons; In Antofagasta, the guiding output of copper in 2002 was 660000-690000 tons, slightly lower than the output target of 710000-740000 tons in 2021, mainly due to the decline of ore grade. Escondida also suffered from the decline of ore grade. In 2021, the output of copper mine was 279500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. Despite the concentration of new copper projects in 2022, the decline in the output of traditional old mines will offset some growth concerns; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper Inventory (China social Treasury (including SHFE) + bonded + LME + Comex exchange) was 414500 tons, an increase of 19100 tons month on month. Among them, China’s social inventory increased by 3000 tons, the bonded area remained unchanged, LME inventory accumulated 13500 tons, Comex copper accumulated 2600 tons, and the inventory in the previous period increased by 4800 tons. Downstream holidays have been superimposed, copper prices have risen, spot trading has been cold, and the premium has weakened. The spot copper import price ratio continued to fall, and the import loss expanded to about 800 yuan / ton. China’s inventory has accelerated its recovery for two consecutive weeks and has fully entered the stage of accumulating inventory before the Spring Festival. The seasonal normal performance of fundamentals has limited impact on copper prices. Under the guidance of the current low inventory and China’s new round of easing policies, copper prices still maintain a strong shock view. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: 54900-1176900 tons were removed from the three exchanges, and SHFE and LME were removed from the warehouse simultaneously. According to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s social Treasury accumulated from 0400 tons to 760300 tons, which was the first time since late November that inventories stopped falling and rebounded; ② In terms of supply, the net increase in the starting capacity this week is 180000 tons to 38.014 million tons, but the resumption of production is still relatively slow. The overseas European energy crisis has not been alleviated, the scale of production reduction or further expansion under the continuous rise of natural gas and electricity prices, and the rate of overseas inventory removal may accelerate; ③ In terms of demand: the procurement behavior in China’s downstream market decreased near the Spring Festival, and the delivery volume of 6063 aluminum rods in the main regions decreased from 10100 tons to 28200 tons during the week. This week, China’s social inventory began to accumulate, but the accumulation time point has obviously lagged behind that in previous years. Considering the recent reduction of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the low rate of resumption of production, the accumulation of China’s electrolytic aluminum inventory from the Spring Festival to March may be lower than that in previous years. In addition, due to the further expansion of overseas production reduction, LME aluminum inventory is expected to continue the stock removal trend. Therefore, the global apparent inventory may continue to decrease during the Spring Festival. Under the situation of low inventory and weak supply, the aluminum price is difficult to fall even during the Spring Festival. If the inventory falls again in the first quarter, the aluminum price may rise strongly again. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: the tight supply pattern of cobalt and lithium continues, and the new high nickel price drives the rise of nickel related products. (1) Lithium: during the week, electric carbon rose by 25000 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton, and the price broke through the profit space of lower electric carbon. During the week, it rose by 22300 yuan / ton to 163000 yuan / ton. In the future, under the trend of leading investment in new energy and new infrastructure, the gap between supply and demand may continue to enlarge, and resource-based enterprises are expected to continue to earn income; (2) Nickel: the price of nickel bean raw materials reached a new high, which increased the price of battery grade nickel sulfate by 2500 yuan to 41750 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel expanded from 39800 yuan / ton to 49200 yuan / ton. Before the Spring Festival, the standby warehouse came to an end, and the downstream inventory performance rebounded. At present, the price of nickel salt still moves up with the cost side, and the demand promotion is limited. (3) Cobalt: this week, the middle price of MB cobalt rose to US $34.35/lb, and the supply of raw materials is still insufficient. Cobalt salt turnover increased compared with last week, and the market activity increased slightly. In the future, it is expected that the price will continue to rise slightly due to the increase of cost and purchase increment. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
