Core view
The possibility of La Nina event in the first quarter was 95%. According to oisstv2, NINO3 in December 2021 4 is -0.97 ℃, NINO3 in the second week (12th) of 2022 monitored by ersstv5 4. It is 0.8 ℃ lower than the historical average and 1.1 ℃ lower in December. October December NINO3 The three-month moving average of the 4 index is - 1.0 ℃, marking the fourth consecutive three-month moving average of nino3.0 ℃ 4. It is more than 0.5 ℃ lower than the long-term average level, and 100% probability index predicted by the superimposed meteorological model enters the La Nina interval from December to February. Therefore, the La Nina event is basically set. In December, the Walker circulation strengthened, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) the air and clouds rose more in the west, the middle was drier, and the trade wind near the surface was strengthened.
The cold event may last until the summer of 2022, and the volcanic eruption may affect the rhythm of SST change. According to the deduction of nmme model, it is at the peak of low sea level temperature at present, and NINO3 will be in the future 4 will continue to rise, and the probability will rise to the ENSO neutral range from April to June. It will still face the influence of La Nina this spring. It should be pointed out that the recent Tonga volcanic eruption or accelerated the rising rhythm of sea surface temperature, making La Nina phenomenon enter neutral events or even El Nino faster in the first half of the year.
The first quarter coincided with the flowering of soybeans in South America, the silking of corn in Brazil and the planting season of sugarcane in India, which was relatively sensitive to the changes of precipitation and temperature. The impact of climate anomalies on the production of relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) deserves attention
Investment proposal and investment object
The global climate is facing anomalies, and crop production is facing potential risks, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) may be easy to rise but difficult to fall, resulting in short-term opportunities in the planting chain. In addition, at present, the industrial chain is in the state of loss and capacity reduction in the downstream, the high price of upstream raw materials or the further reduction of fermentation capacity are expected, and the aquaculture sector has the value of configuration on the left. It is suggested to pay attention to the rich country China Securities agriculture theme ETF 159825.
Risk tips
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk, policy risk, industry competition and product risk
