Main points:
Pig prices rose 3.8% to 14.41 yuan / kg, and the willingness to fill the column decreased slightly. ① Pig prices rose 3.8% week on week. On Saturday, the national pig price was 14.41 yuan / kg, up 3.8% on a weekly basis; On Friday, the national average wholesale price of pork was 22.05 yuan / kg, down 0.9% on a weekly basis. The loss of self bred pigs was 300.36 yuan / head, and the loss of purchased piglets was 33.15 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs in the slaughter decreased, and the willingness to make up the slaughter decreased slightly.
According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (1.14-1.20): the proportion of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 10.63%, and the weekly ratio decreased by 0.16 percentage points, so the epidemic situation is relatively controllable; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 399 yuan / head, down 1% on a weekly basis, up 159% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1648 yuan / head, down 0.7% on a weekly basis, up 33% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In December 2021, the prosperity of pig vaccine continued to be low. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was 27.9% for porcine circadian vaccine, 9.3% for classical swine fever vaccine, 5.1% for foot-and-mouth vaccine, 8.3% for diarrhea vaccine, 14.1% for porcine parvovirus vaccine, 14.7% for highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine and 40.4% for Porcine Pseudorabies vaccine. In December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine – 9.2%, classical swine fever vaccine – 32.3%, porcine ring vaccine – 38.8%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 40%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 57.1%, porcine pseudorabies vaccine – 25.4% and diarrhea vaccine – 76.0%. ④ The inflection point of the pig cycle still needs to be observed. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, which can change time for space. From July to November in 2021, although the stock of fertile sows decreased by 6.9% month on month, the inflection point of pig price may appear in 2023: I) since the late October of 2021, the prices of piglets and breeding pigs have rebounded sharply, and the recent decline in pig price has not led to a significant decline in the enthusiasm to supplement the stock. The change of the stock of fertile sows in the later stage still needs to be observed; II) since the beginning of 2021, inefficient sows have been cleared and the efficiency of breeding pigs has been continuously improved; III) from 2020 to 2021, a huge amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years; IV) mainstream listed pig enterprises plan to increase by more than 30% in 2022. The cost of 10000 pig farms and ordinary farmers is concentrated at 13 yuan / kg, and it is difficult to form effective elimination when the pig price is higher than 13 yuan / kg. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic in the pig industry, the pig price will be relatively low in 2022, and the inflection point may appear in 2023. We use the expected slaughter volume in 2022 to calculate the average market value of pig enterprises, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5139 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4823 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1970 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2500 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2099 yuan; Compared with the lowest point in history, Wen’s 50%, muyuan 48%, Zhengbang 33%, tianbang 12% and COFCO Jiakang 27%. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in the bottom area, so it is recommended to pay active attention. The price of white feather chicken products rose by 0.5% on a weekly basis, and the price of Yellow Feather Rose and fell on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.5% on a weekly basis. On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 9750 yuan / ton, up 0.5% week on week. The white feather broiler Association released the December report of 2021: in 2021, the national ancestral generation renewal volume was 1246200 sets, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and the sales volume of parental generation chicken seedlings was 63.6572 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 6%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased significantly year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 2021, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. On January 21, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 6.43 yuan / kg, up 1.7% on a weekly basis and down 9.9% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.51 yuan / kg, down 6.6% month on week and up 0.5% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 8.52 yuan / kg, up 1.1% on a weekly basis and 3.3% on a year-on-year basis; Black bone chicken was 7.39 yuan / kg, up 0.5% on a weekly basis and down 11.8% year-on-year.
The pilot transgenic varieties have obvious advantages of cost saving and efficiency increasing, and the commercialization of transgenic is gradually approaching.
The commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has carried out industrialization pilot projects for herbicide resistant genetically modified soybeans and insect resistant and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained production and application safety certificates. At present, the progress is relatively good: first, the pilot genetically modified varieties have excellent characteristics and obvious advantages of cost saving and efficiency increasing. The weeding effect of transgenic soybean is more than 95%, which can reduce the weeding cost by 50% and increase the yield by 12%; The control effect of transgenic maize on Spodoptera meadowi can reach 95%, which greatly reduces the cost of pest control; At the same time, the content of mycotoxin in transgenic maize grain is low and the quality is good; Second, the pilot genetically modified soybeans and corn have no adverse impact on the production environment. Planting transgenic maize reduces the use of pesticides and promotes biodiversity; Third, implement the management of “unified supply, purchase and technical specifications” on a pilot basis, and carry out patrol guidance, supervision and inspection on a regular basis to strictly prevent illegal proliferation. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) the corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. III) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificates for genetically modified maize traits; Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources, and the quality of germplasm resources is very important to the quality of transgenic varieties; As a global agricultural technology giant and China’s national seed industry team, Syngenta ranks third in seed business and first in plant protection business in the world. It is one of the companies with the richest seed product portfolio in the world. Syngenta has developed more than 6000 seed products with independent intellectual property rights, and established more than 100 breeding and germplasm improvement centers in major seed markets around the world, The annual R & D cost is nearly 10 billion yuan.
We judge that Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China’s transgenic seed industry. As it will take time for production experiment, variety approval and performance fulfillment, we judge that the seed industry sector will fluctuate upward.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 2020-2021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of factories in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
