Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose and coal price rose; C3. The prices of aromatics, chemical fertilizers, polyurethane and fluorine chemical products increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 0.3%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 2.1%, imported lpg-4.2%, domestic LNG gas + 8.9%, bituminous coal + 2.4%.
On the raw material side, the prices of C3 and aromatics products rose, while the prices of C2 products fell; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fertilizer, polyurethane and fluorine chemical products rose, while the prices of some pesticide products fell.
Oil prices rose this week, the Iranian issue is still at an impasse in negotiations, and the tight supply and rising prices of natural gas in Europe are still supported. This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 86.1 to 87.9 US dollars / barrel (up 2.1%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 83.8 to 85.1 US dollars / barrel (up 1.6%); US commercial crude oil inventory was 414 million barrels (mom + 0.1%), and the number of US crude oil drilling wells was 491 (Mom – 0.2%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the recent market focus is that OPEC + will increase production in the future, which may be difficult to meet expectations. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine is tightening, and the Iranian issue is still at an impasse in negotiations. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, both OPEC and IEA monthly reports are optimistic about future demand, and the market’s concern about the epidemic has been greatly weakened. At the same time, the tight supply and rising prices of natural gas in Europe still provide support. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the market is still concerned about the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, but there is no possibility of landing from January to February. Recently, the US dollar has only fluctuated in a narrow range, with limited impact on oil prices. In terms of geopolitics, according to Longzhong information, the confrontation between the United States and Russia on the issue of Ukraine, the conflict between Hussein armed forces and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the suspension of Turkey’s oil pipeline for some reason, and the recent tense geopolitical atmosphere are good support for oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: this week (1.14-1.20), natural gas rose or fell in Europe and the United States, with NBP – 5.73%, TTF – 4.36%, HH + 0.86% and AECO + 3.91%. In terms of spot, it goes in the same direction as futures, and HH spot is + 15.72% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain – 8.52%, Europe TTF spot chain – 7.92%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 9265 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 7.29%. The average sales price at the terminal was 5198 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 97 yuan / ton (- 1.83%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of January 14, the US natural gas inventory was 2810 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 206 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 6.8%, year-on-year ratio of – 7.4%), still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of January 14, the European natural gas inventory was 1823.9 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 169 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 8.48%, year-on-year ratio of – 25.22%).
China’s price: the price of China’s main LNG producing areas was basically stable this week. As of January 20, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 4545 yuan / ton, up + 0.84% from last week; Consumer prices rose and fell in different ways. As of January 20, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 5153 yuan / ton, down – 0.46% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 5177 yuan / ton, down from – 0.94% last week.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are vitamin B5 + 20%, isooctanol + 14%, maleic anhydride + 13%, butyl acrylate + 11%, DOP + 9%, R125 + 7%, acrylic acid + 7%, propylene oxide + 7%, dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) + 5%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are dichloromethane-10%, o-nitrochlorobenzene-9%, npg-7%, antioxidant rd-7%, epichlorohydrin-6%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon is equal, trichlorosilane + 6%, soda ash (light + 3%, heavy quality is equal), vinyl acetate is equal, and EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal.
Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid – 4%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 2%, battery grade + 2%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
Downstream goods are prepared before the Spring Festival, spot resources are tight, and the price of maleic anhydride rises.
Maleic anhydride (East China) rose 13.0% to 11750 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the unsaturated resin market operates smoothly. At present, it coincides with the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, and there is a certain demand for goods in the downstream, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the plant in East China was shut down in the early stage and was still in the production increase stage in mid January. Affected by the epidemic in Henan, there is a certain transportation resistance to the outward transportation of products. At present, the spot resources of the factory are still tight.
The cost of phthalic anhydride was supported, the deposit and drop expectation in the later stage of construction was expected, and the DOP price rose.
DOP (East China) rose 9.0% to 11550 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, phthalic anhydride (East China) rose 3.4% to 7600 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream will enter the market for goods preparation and procurement in stages before the Spring Festival; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, some units in East and South China were expected to be shut down in January, most units in North China and Shandong and Henan were in normal production, and the storage and reduction expectation in the later stage of DOP commencement was favorable.
Exports increased, the overall market supply was low, and R125 prices rose.
R125 (Zhejiang) rose 7.4% to 36500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, after the foreign trade export license is handled, the export delivery has increased, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to the shutdown of Baichuan Yingfu and Jiangsu Meilan chemical’s 10000 ton R125 unit, there is no restart plan in the short term. The mixed distribution source is mainly purchased. The 40000 ton unit of Sanmei chemical is currently shut down for maintenance, and the 20000 ton refrigerant R125 unit of Zibo feiyuan is currently in medium operation, and the overall market supply is low.
The downstream stock intention increased, and the spot market was tight, supporting the price of acrylic acid.
Acrylic acid (East China) rose 7.1% to 13500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream acrylate enterprises started stably, mainly purchased raw materials on demand, and the downstream stock intention increased near the end of the year, forming a favorable demand side; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the device load of production enterprises is low, some devices are shut down for maintenance, Shanghai Huayi acrylic acid and ester device is repaired in turn, Shenyang waxed acrylic acid and ester device is shut down, satellite chemical acrylic acid and ester device is repaired in turn, Shandong Kaitai acrylic acid device is shut down, Wanzhou Petrochemical Acrylic Acid and ester device is shut down, and the manufacturer’s available stock is tight.
The number of new orders signed by the main downstream forces increased, and the overall supply decreased, pushing up the price of propylene oxide.
Propylene oxide (East China) rose 7.0% to 11050 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, propylene (East China) rose 3.7% to 8165 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the demand of downstream polyether and terminal market has improved, some factories have the intention of hoarding a small amount of goods before the festival, and the number of new orders signed in the downstream main polyether market has increased, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, in addition to the routine shutdown and maintenance manufacturers, some EPDM manufacturers in Shandong and Northeast China have reduced the load for operation. In addition, Wanhua’s new phase 2 300000 t / a propylene oxide plant is now in stable operation at 70% to 80% load, and Ningbo Haian’s new phase 2 300000 t / a propylene oxide plant is now in stable operation at 80% load. On the whole, the supply of EPDM in Chinese factories has been reduced as a whole, The market supply is slightly tight.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
