On January 20, the State Council issued the "14th five year plan" for tourism development. Our analysis and interpretation are as follows:
The national policy support for tourism and the expectation of expanding domestic demand are clear, and the prelude to the recovery of tourism is officially launched:
1) in terms of policy support, consider the impact of the epidemic and development needs - it is required to fully implement the tax reduction and fee reduction policies in a timely manner, make full use of various support policies, effectively relieve the difficulties for the main body of the tourism market, and actively explore new ideas and measures to support the development of the main body of the market.
2) in terms of expectations for expanding domestic demand, compared with the 13th five year plan for Tourism - the new important task of expanding domestic demand, it is necessary to make full use of the advantages of wide coverage, strong driving force and high openness of tourism to build it into an important engine to promote national economic growth. In the context of policy support and the expectation of expanding domestic demand, we fully believe that the prelude to the recovery of tourism industry has been officially launched.
The 14th five year plan for the tourism industry downplays quantitative indicators, strengthens the theme of high-quality development and the main line of supply side structural reform, and supports the strengthening, optimization and expansion of backbone tourism enterprises.
1) 2025 development goal: China's tourism is booming, inbound and outbound tourism is advancing in an orderly manner, a number of world-class scenic spots and resorts with rich cultural heritage are built, a number of national tourism and leisure cities and blocks with distinctive cultural characteristics are created, red tourism and rural tourism are accelerated, and tourism is serving the national economic and social development and meeting the people's cultural needs The role of strengthening people's spiritual strength and promoting the improvement of social civilization has become more prominent; We believe that compared with the 13th five year plan, the 14th five year plan will dilute the quantitative indicators of tourism development.
2) from the perspective of guiding ideology, the guiding ideology of the 14th five year plan for tourism is to promote the high-quality development of tourism as the theme, deepen the supply side structural reform of tourism as the main line, pay attention to demand side management, innovate and improve China's tourism under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and promote inbound tourism step by step and orderly under the premise of effective control of international epidemic Steadily develop outbound tourism and strive to promote the deep integration of culture and tourism; We believe that the guiding ideology of the 13th five year plan is to accelerate the supply side structural reform with the theme of transformation and upgrading, improving quality and efficiency, and promoting the development of regional tourism as the main line.
3) from the perspective of market players, strengthen, optimize and expand backbone tourism enterprises, steadily promote strategic M & A and large-scale, brand and network operation, and cultivate a number of large tourism groups and tourism enterprises with international influence; Support the development of travel agencies in the direction of "specialization, characteristics and innovation", and realize the transformation of travel agency management to modern, intensive and efficient.
It mainly recommends outbound tourism, tax exemption, scenic spots, hotels, OTA and other tourism related benefit sectors. The specific targets are as follows:
1) outbound tourism: steadily develop outbound tourism, and outbound tourism may be expected to meet the turning point of recovery. The plan points out that outbound tourism should be developed steadily. On the premise that international personnel exchanges return to normal, tourism enterprises should strictly abide by the national regulations on epidemic prevention and control, promote the countries of outbound tourism destinations to give me visa free convenience for ordinary passports, and support qualified Chinese tourism enterprises to follow Chinese tourists "going out" and build an overseas tourism reception network. Key recommendation: [ Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ]: the company has strong outbound tourism brand, strong customer acquisition and reception ability, and the most beneficial outbound tourism is potentially recovering. In addition, the epidemic has a shuffle effect on the industry, and it is expected to increase its share after the epidemic. In addition, the layout of China tourism, new retail and other businesses may bring incremental contributions in the future.
2) tax exemption: the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is expected to increase, the level of departure tax rebate is expected to increase, and the tax exemption policy in the city is expected to increase. The plan points out to improve China's tourism, orderly promote inbound tourism and steadily develop outbound tourism; Improve the service level of shopping departure tax rebate, expand the coverage of shopping departure tax rebate policy, and encourage more merchants to voluntarily become tax rebate stores to enrich the variety of goods; We will improve the tax exemption policy system and promote the healthy and orderly development of China's tax exemption industry. Highlights: 1) [ Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) ]: the company is the first comprehensive retail group in China to obtain tax exemption qualification. It has core business district resources, obvious regional advantages, and smooth cooperation with upstream. If the stores in the city are opened, there is a lot of room for performance imagination; 2) [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ]: the company is a pioneer and leader in China's tax-free industry. The recovery of China's tourism is conducive to the acceleration of tax-free in Hainan outlying islands and the large volume of new projects. The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is conducive to the recovery of inbound and outbound tax-free and the increase of tax-free in the city.
3) scenic spots: policy support is superimposed on the expectation of consumption recovery under the normalization of epidemic situation, and the further recovery of high-quality scenic spots is expected. The plan points out that in 2035, the supply of high-quality tourism represented by national cultural parks, world-class scenic spots and resorts, National Tourism and leisure cities and blocks will be more abundant. It is suggested to pay attention to: high-quality scenic spot stocks such as performance leader [ Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ], scenic spot leader [ China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ] [ Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) ] [Fosun tourism culture] [Haichang Ocean Park] [Mount Emei a] ice and snow tourism target [ Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ], surrounding cursor [ Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) ].
4) Hotels: select rigid demand varieties in consumption and take the lead in recovery after the epidemic situation improves; In 2020, the epidemic situation will promote the clearing of industrial supply by 10-15%, and the increasing trend of concentration is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to: taking into account competitiveness and valuation, the three leading hotels [ Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ] [ Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ] [Huazhu group].
5) Ota: under the background of the epidemic, individual hotels are more lack of traffic, but the franchise investment is more cautious. The OTA of platform Commission pumping mode has the advantage of flexibility. Ctrip and Tongcheng 21q2 perform relatively well. Ctrip China's profits have returned to a healthy state, and the number of Hotel nights in Tongcheng China has increased by 65% over the same period in 19 years. It is optimistic about the rapid recovery after the epidemic. Suggestions: OTA target [Ctrip group], [Tongcheng travel].
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly disturbs the recovery rhythm, the macroeconomic impact is less than expected, and the upward operating cost affects the profitability of the above companies
