The high callback valuation of the petrochemical sector is at the bottom, and we are still optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. Affected by market sentiment, the share prices of upstream oil and gas, oil service, private large-scale refining and chemical fiber enterprises have continued to callback from the 21-year high. The current valuation is in the bottom range as a whole. The short-term performance of oil service enterprises may be under pressure due to asset impairment, but under the continuous growth trend of capital expenditure, the future development prospect is still bright. We believe that: 1) the global crude oil supply is tightening, the space for increasing production is limited, and the demand side continues to recover. In the past 22 years, the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is good, and the oil price is expected to remain high. In the medium and long term, the growth of crude oil supply is weak, which forms a strong support for oil prices. Energy security has a long way to go, the policy of “increasing reserves and increasing production” continues to be promoted, and China’s oil and gas production is expected to continue to grow. 2) Under the background of “steady growth”, we believe that the performance of the original business of the chemical industry leader is expected to continue to shine in the future. At the same time, the improvement of the downstream industrial chain layout will bring considerable performance increment, and the improvement of the industrial chain layout will also reduce the performance volatility. Baima, the leader represented by private refining, will still have high growth in the future. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. At present, the overall valuation of the petrochemical sector is in the bottom range and has high investment value.
The continuous correction of stock price does not change the growth attribute of semiconductor and new energy materials enterprises, and the current position has good configuration value. Since the second half of 2021, the share prices of new energy materials related enterprises such as electrolyte, phosphorus chemical industry and semiconductor materials related enterprises have continued to callback or volatility callback, but the fundamentals of related enterprises and industries have not fundamentally changed, and the prices of related products still show an upward trend or remain high. For new energy materials, the market is worried about the future supply and demand structure. However, in our opinion, in the medium and short term, due to the constraints of environmental impact assessment, energy review and approval and the rhythm of large-scale production capacity, the new energy materials represented by iron phosphate / lithium iron phosphate will still be in a tight state of supply and demand, Leading enterprises will get better development opportunities by virtue of their first mover advantage and cost resource advantage. In terms of semiconductor materials, the rapid expansion of China’s foundry capacity will increase the demand for medium and low-end semiconductor materials. Chinese semiconductor material enterprises have achieved large quantities in medium and low-end products, and the penetration rate of domestic semiconductor material products will gradually increase in the future. To sum up, new energy materials and semiconductor materials enterprises will still maintain a rapid development trend. After the correction, the current position has good configuration value.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a decline. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.86%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.11% and the gem index fell by 2.72%. CITIC basic chemical fell 3.8%, ranking 28th in all sectors.
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: Shandongsino-Agriunitedbiotechnologyco.Ltd(003042) (+ 31.80%), Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) (+ 28.07%), Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation(002917) (+ 23.67%), Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387)
\u3000\u3000（+15.15%）， Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) （+13.41%）。
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC and Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) New materials: it is suggested to pay attention to ① semiconductor materials: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Tianjin Jiuri New Materials Co.Ltd(688199) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
