Key investment points:
The central economic work conference set the macroeconomic policy of 2022 as stable and effective, and implemented an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The meeting stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, and begin to correct the deviation of real estate policies. At the same time, it is noted that the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate on January 17. It is expected that the LPR will decrease with the MLF, which will play a certain role in driving the macro-economy. As the backbone of fixed asset investment, real estate and infrastructure are expected to start a new round of stable growth. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
From the relationship between infrastructure investment and GDP growth, the infrastructure cycle is ahead of the GDP growth cycle. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, China’s policy is turning positive, and new and old infrastructure projects are expected to play a role in underpinning the economy in the future. The Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 in advance, focusing on transportation infrastructure and other directions. It is expected that the amount of infrastructure investment in 2022 will be effectively guaranteed. Infrastructure, green building, new energy and other related building sub fields are expected to benefit, with emphasis on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry. Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) the energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. The key recommendations are Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
BIPV is an important development direction of green buildings. The 14th five year plan clearly proposes to accelerate the development of non fossil energy, adhere to both centralized and distributed development, and vigorously improve the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings. The central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. The aging trend of construction workers is obvious, and the labor cost is also increasing. Prefabricated buildings have obvious advantages over traditional cast-in-place buildings in terms of labor cost. Focus on Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Yuanda housing and workers.
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The impact of some real estate enterprises continues to spread; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
