Key investment points:
Market review: from January 17 to January 21, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 1.55% as a whole, ranking the 22nd among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the CSI 300 index by about 2.66 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, except for the hotel and catering sector, which rose by 0.19%, education, tourism and leisure and comprehensive services fell by 1.72%, 1.80% and 2.80% respectively, all outperforming the CSI 300 index. There were 24 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, of which the top five were Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Western Regions Tourism Development Co.Ltd(300859) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , up 14.51%, 11.41%, 7.67%, 6.98% and 6.86% respectively. 29 companies achieved negative returns, of which the top five listed companies were Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , down 9.79%, 11.48%, 14.33%, 15.58% and 20.14% respectively. As of January 21, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 39.88 times, down slightly from last week and 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors are 35.60 times, 56.00 times, 49.81 times and 60.83 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of January 21, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 205 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 2.964 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 4.5277 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 125.04 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 51.88%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 29.2308 million doses.
Important news: (1) the State Council issued the tourism development plan for the 14th five year plan, which aims to enrich the effective supply, high-quality supply and flexible supply of tourism and better meet the consumption demand of mass tourism by 2025. The foundation of epidemic prevention and control is stronger, and the requirements of scientific and accurate prevention and control are fully implemented in the tourism industry. China’s tourism is booming, inbound and outbound tourism is advancing in an orderly manner, and culture and tourism are deeply integrated. (2) In 2021, the added value of China’s accommodation and catering industry increased by 14.5% year-on-year.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. The State Council issued the 14th five year plan for tourism to raise the expectation of tourism recovery. Combined with the 14th five year plan for civil aviation development, the inbound and outbound tourism policy is expected to change during the year, and the valuation of the tourism sector was boosted last Friday. 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the obvious recovery of the number of tourists in Hainan in the peak season, the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) with low current valuation, which is favorable for consumption upgrading and consumption return in the medium and long term; Franchise stores account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders with stable performance Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258), etc; Artificial scenic spot leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144) with large performance flexibility; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) (603099) which is expected to benefit from the Winter Olympics effect in the short term.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
