On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 14.23 yuan / kg, up 0.85% from last Friday. In the first half of the week, although the market concentrated on marketing gradually came to an end, there were still many marketing on the whole. The supply of pigs in the market was sufficient, and the pig price continued to fall; In the second half of the week, the centralized marketing was further reduced and the supply decreased. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday was getting closer and closer, the market demand for fresh pork continued to grow, and the stock and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased, resulting in a rebound in pig prices. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, by the end of 2021, there were 43.29 million fertile sows in China, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. According to this data, the number of fertile sows increased by 0.77% month on month in December. From the perspective of cycle dimension, we need to continue to pay attention to the depopulation of pig production capacity. In the short term, the rebound of pig prices in the early stage does have an impact on the speed of capacity removal, but we believe that the current sow supply is still surplus. Under the expected background of the second bottom of pig prices after the Spring Festival, farmers may continue to accelerate the pace of eliminating sow capacity in the future, and the expectation of the reversal of the 22-year cycle is still strong.
On January 20, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, Zeng Yande, director of the development planning department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that at present, the pilot industrialization of genetically modified varieties in China is proceeding in an orderly manner. Last year, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas carried out the pilot industrialization of herbicide resistant genetically modified beans and insect and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained the production and application safety certificate, and made good progress. At present, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas is revising the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, to clarify the relevant provisions on the industrialized application of genetically modified crops. We believe that the commercialization of genetically modified organisms in China is gradually and orderly promoted, and relevant enterprises are expected to usher in the performance cashing period. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with technical reserves and first mover advantages in the genetically modified seed industry.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases were as follows: feed 0.14%, livestock and poultry breeding – 2.59%, planting – 4.56%, animal health care – 5.23%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing – 5.41% and fishery – 12.68%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 8.68%, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) 7.67%, Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) 7.62%, Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) 4.87%, Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) 4.65%; The top five companies are: Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) – 15.08%, Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) – 17.72%, jiawo shares – 18.84%, Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) – 22.02%, Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002086) – 22.68%.
Key tracking:
1. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) announcement 2021 annual performance forecast
Event: on January 19, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) announced the company’s performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize a total operating revenue of 77-80 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.5-8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.86% – 76.32%.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[suggested attention] Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: the risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, the impact of extreme weather, the impact of animal diseases, etc.
