The 154 environmental protection and public utility stocks we tracked lost 1.99 percentage points to the Shanghai index this week and outperformed the Shanghai index by 18.34 percentage points since the beginning of the year. This week Kingland Technology Co.Ltd(000711) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) rose by 14.64%, 10.51% and 9.41% respectively, showing a good performance; Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) , Lingda Group Co.Ltd(300125) , Jiangsu Jiangnan Water Co.Ltd(601199) fell by 16.22%, 13.33% and 11.43% respectively, with poor performance.
The implementation opinions on further improving the charging support capacity of electric vehicles were issued, and it is estimated that 20 million electric vehicles can be served by the end of the 14th five year plan.
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and other 10 departments jointly issued the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (hereinafter referred to as the Implementation Opinions). The implementation opinions is based on comprehensively supporting the implementation of the development plan of the new energy vehicle industry, strengthening the guiding role of the plan, putting forward the requirements for the preparation of the layout plan of charging infrastructure at the provincial and municipal levels, and clarifying the construction requirements of various charging infrastructure such as urban public, County and township, expressway, units and inside the park. It is clear that by the end of the 14th five year plan, China will form a moderately advanced, balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system, which can meet the charging demand of more than 20 million electric vehicles. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China’s charging infrastructure has achieved leapfrog development and built a charging infrastructure system with the largest number, the largest radiation area and the most complete service vehicles in the world. By the end of 2021, the scale of national charging facilities has reached 2.617 million, 1298 power stations have been replaced, and nearly 8 million new energy vehicles have been served, which has provided strong support for the development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry. Even so, there are some problems in China, such as the difficulty of building piles in residential communities and the uneven development of public charging facilities. The implementation opinions focuses on breaking through the bottleneck of charging infrastructure development, promoting the construction of new power systems, solving the problems existing in the construction and operation of charging infrastructure, helping the high-quality development of electric vehicle industry and accelerating the realization of China’s “double carbon” goal.
The installed capacity of photovoltaic grid connection exceeded 300 million KW, and the distributed installed capacity performed well.
According to the data of the national energy administration, China’s newly added photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity was about 53 million kW in 2021, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of grid connected photovoltaic power generation had reached 306 million KW, breaking the 300 million KW mark, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. Among them, distributed photovoltaic reached 107.5 million KW, exceeding 100 million KW, accounting for about one third of the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation. Among the newly added photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity in 2021, distributed photovoltaic power generation increased by about 29 million KW, accounting for about 55% of the total newly added photovoltaic power generation installed capacity, exceeding 50% for the first time in history. The development trend of both centralized and distributed photovoltaic power generation is obvious. In addition, among the newly added distributed PV, household PV will exceed 20 million kW in 2021, reaching about 21.5 million KW after exceeding 10 million KW for the first time in 2020. Household PV has become an important force for China to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization as scheduled and implement the strategy of Rural Revitalization. In the first year of the 14th five year plan, the construction of photovoltaic power generation achieved new breakthroughs and showed a new development trend. Distributed photovoltaic has developed rapidly, basically going hand in hand with centralized photovoltaic. In the context of the “double carbon” goal, the rapid development of new energy installed capacity, accelerating China’s low-carbon green transformation of energy and increasing the utilization of China’s clean energy are in line with the development goal of China’s green energy consumption.
The power coal market operates at a high level as a whole, and the downstream goods preparation is basically based on rigid demand.
The China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal market is running at a high level as a whole this week. In terms of origin, some private coal mines in China’s main production areas have been on holiday this week, and some coal mines have equipment maintenance or working face relocation, so China’s supply has been tightened compared with the previous period; In some areas, the reserve work of small and medium-sized power plants in the downstream continues, the profits of coal chemical products are good, and the demand for coal is also released, which supports the power coal market in the producing area. On the whole, there are many coal mines in production in the main production area, the shipment is good, there is no inventory, and the pit mouth price is high. In terms of downstream demand, the replenishment of main power plants in China this week will continue to be dominated by long-term cooperation, and the stock preparation of some small and medium-sized power plants in some areas will continue before the Spring Festival; At the same time, after the rise of crude oil price, the profits of some coal chemical products are better, and the demand for coal is also increased, which forms a strong support for the power coal market of origin. Downstream users in coastal areas continue to rely mainly on rigid demand.
The average price of LNG in China rose first and then declined, and the natural gas in the United States maintained a high level.
In terms of supply, the output of China’s LNG plants decreased month on month this week, and the shipment volume of tank batch at the terminal decreased month on month for three consecutive weeks; From the perspective of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for urban fuel and supplementary storage will decline, the operating rate of industrial users will also decline under the influence of holidays, and the demand for LNG in the downstream market will decrease day by day; In terms of local market, the inflow of liquid plants in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has increased due to the continuous low shipment volume of terminal in Tianjin in Hebei, Beijing and other places. Next week, LNG supply and demand may show a weak operation situation. It is expected that the subsequent LNG price may maintain a downward trend. The US natural gas market is running at a high level in this cycle. During the week, the central and eastern parts of the United States were affected by the cold air, and the demand for natural gas heating stimulated the market to rise, which also laid the tone of the high market in the whole cycle. However, the profit taking of traders in the cycle makes the market fluctuate slightly, but it has little impact on the overall high-level operation of the market. At present, the overall temperature in the United States is relatively cold, which is conducive to the demand for natural gas power generation and heating. In addition, the European natural gas crisis has not been lifted, which also has a positive effect on the natural gas export of the United States. Overall, the US natural gas market is expected to continue high volatility in the short term.
Investment advice
At present, countries all over the world regard lithium resources as strategic mineral resources one after another. It is very important to ensure the supply security of lithium metal minerals and establish a local supply chain. At the same time, with the continuous rise in the price of lithium concentrate, the profits of non integrated lithium salt processing enterprises are gradually thinning, and the profits have been largely shifted to the resource side. A typical example is aokuang, which is highly dependent on China’s lithium salt processing plants. In the last cycle, it only earned 30% of the profits of the industrial chain. In this cycle, 70% – 80% of the profits have been transferred to aokuang, which just confirms aokuang’s expectation that the profits of this cycle and China’s lithium salt plants will open at the beginning of the year. In the current context, the competitiveness of integrated enterprises with upstream resource guarantee and incremental resources is significantly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the ongoing Lijiagou spodumene mining and beneficiation project. In the future, it will join hands with Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop the [ Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ] of lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA. The beneficiary targets include [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ] that the greenbushes mine has been increasing production in the next five years and can achieve large-scale output through OEM. It is promoting the [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ] of yuanyangba 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project, It is estimated that [ Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ] will be completed by the middle of 2022, and [ Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ] will have a good performance of potassium fertilizer and lithium salt in 2022.
In the process of accelerating the transformation of energy structure to green and low-carbon, the installed capacity of new energy is expected to grow rapidly, and new energy operators benefit from the increase of scale, the improvement of operation efficiency and the thickening of performance. We recommend paying attention to the new energy target of thermal power transformation [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]; At the same time, [ Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ] and [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] new energy operation power stations have benefited, and the targets of Hong Kong stocks have benefited from [Longyuan Power], [China Resources Power] and [China power].
Waste incineration is an industry encouraged and supported by national industrial policies. Promoting the integrated construction and professional operation of urban domestic waste treatment facilities is the development trend of the industry, and professional waste treatment service providers providing integrated investment, construction and operation services will occupy a competitive advantage. Under the policy background of “carbon neutralization and carbon peak”, the waste incineration power generation project will continue to benefit. We recommend paying attention to the leading waste incineration projects [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ] and [ Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) ].
Risk tips
1) the implementation of carbon neutralization related policies is less than expected;
2) the demand for power coal and natural gas decreases seasonally;
3) major changes in power policy;
4) the development progress of lithium mine in Sichuan is less than expected.
