Key investment points
Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) shenwanyi industry (31): this week (from January 17 to January 21), the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries were – 0.31% and – 1.29% respectively, ranking 12th and 15th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by + 1.11%.
2) Shenwan secondary industry (134): this week (from January 17 to January 21), the cumulative growth of tourism and scenic spots, airports, tourism retail and hotel catering was + 5.2%, + 4.7%, + 0.0% and – 0.4% respectively, ranking 6th, 9th, 41st and 47th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from January 15 to January 21, China reported a total of 499 local confirmed cases (836 last week), mainly in Henan Province (Zhengzhou, Xuchang and Anyang), Shaanxi Province (Xi’an), Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Meizhou), Guangxi Province (Chongzuo) Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing; As of 21:00 on January 22, 2022, there are 92 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 19 high-risk areas (Tianjin 12, Henan 5, Beijing 1 and Shaanxi 1) and 73 medium risk areas (Tianjin 26, Henan 37, Shanghai 1, Shaanxi 2, Guangdong 6 and Beijing 1). 2) Global: from January 15 to January 21, there were about 21.37 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, a month on month increase of + 4.9%; The number of deaths increased by 52601, a month on month increase of + 4.9%. 3) United States: from January 15 to January 21, about 5 million new cases were diagnosed, down 13% month on month; There were 15557 new deaths, an increase of 13% month on month. 4) UK: from January 15 to January 21, a total of 650000 cases were newly diagnosed, with a month on month decrease of 27%; There were 1894 new deaths, an increase of 1% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of January 21, China has reported about 2.96 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. About 4.53 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from January 15 to January 21, a month on month decrease of 23%. 2) Global: as of January 14, about 9.9 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and 60% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: the epidemic affects passenger travel
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from January 17 to January 21, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 10175, down 32.8% year-on-year in 2019 and 2.2% month on month last week.
2) aviation department: from January 17 to January 21, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 835, 1452, 1395, 454, 268 and 152 respectively, with the average of – 9.5%, – 9.1%, – 1.6%, + 2.8%, – 7.4% and + 4.8% respectively.
3) HNA’s ask and RPK increased month on month in December: HNA’s ask decreased by 35% year on year and increased by 21% month on month in December; RPK decreased by 41% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 27% month on month; The occupancy rate is 67%, down 7% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, HNA ask decreased by 52% and RPK decreased by 57% compared with the same period of 19 years.
4) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 12 menstrual camp data decreased month on month: in December, Jixiang ask decreased by 22% year on year and 9% month on month; RPK decreased by 34% year-on-year and 1% month on month in 2019; The occupancy rate is 66%, down 14% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, Jixiang ask decreased by 11% and RPK decreased by 22% compared with the same period of 19 years.
5) Airport: from January 10 to January 14, according to the flight control data, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 358, 310, 349, 477 and 269 respectively, up from + 2.0%, – 1.7%, + 10.2%, + 13.3% and – 28.3% respectively last week.
6) Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) December 2021 menstrual battalion data: ① take-off and landing sorties: Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) 22262 take-off and landing sorties in December, 19-47% year-on-year and 20-10% year-on-year; About 349000 sorties took off and landed from January to December, a year-on-year increase of – 32% in 19 years and + 7% in 20 years. ② Passenger throughput: Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) the passenger throughput in December was about 1.484 million person times, a year-on-year increase of – 27%; Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes was 1.322 million, a year-on-year increase of – 55%. The passenger throughput from January to December was about 32.21 million person times, a year-on-year increase of + 6% over the previous 20 years; The passenger throughput of China’s airlines was about 30.53 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 19% – 19% and a year-on-year increase of 20 + 19%.
7) Spring Festival travel tracking: the civil aviation is expected to send 5.02 million passengers six days before the Spring Festival travel, with a year-on-year increase of + 65% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of – 56% in 20 years and a year-on-year decrease of – 52% in 19 years.
Tax exemption: the tax-free discount on outlying islands is the same, with a target sales of 100 billion yuan in 22 years
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from January 15 to January 21, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 374 and 465 respectively, an increase of 2% and 4% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 55355 person times, down 2.1% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and outlying island tax-free channels (China free, Haifa control, China travel investment and China export service) was basically the same month on month.
3) the implementation of Hainan’s national economic and social development plan for 2021 and the draft plan for 2022 released by Hainan Provincial Development and Reform Commission mentioned that we will strive to achieve 100 billion yuan of sales of duty-free stores in 2022.
4) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in 2021, the total operating revenue was 67.669 billion yuan, an increase of 28.65% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.592 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23% over the same period last year.
Hotel: RevPAR month on month in December + 10%
1. According to STR data, the demand of China’s hotel industry rebounded month on month in December. 1) Occupancy rate: the occupancy rate in December was 50.4%, which was -11.8pct compared with the same period in 2019, -8.0pct compared with the same period in 2020, and + 3.3pct compared with November.
2) average house price: the average house price of the hotel in December was 396.2 yuan, down 9% year-on-year in 2019, 4% year-on-year in 2020 and + 3% month on month in November. 3) RevPAR: in December, RevPAR was about 199.6 yuan, down 26% year-on-year in 2019, 17% year-on-year in 2020 and + 10% month on month in November.
2. Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) plans to acquire relevant assets of “Junlan” with RMB 140 million.
3. The comprehensive average daily house price of 21q4 Huaying Hotel (excluding the hotel under Requisition) was 239 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; The comprehensive occupancy rate is 68.2%, and the RevPAR is 163 yuan.
Investment advice
1) recommended Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. Intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the scale advantage is obvious, the management is significantly improved, and the overseas recovery is accelerated, which is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β ， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified
