Is aviation going to revive? Recovery expectation agitation
Investment in aviation stocks, from focusing on the mitigation of the epidemic to the expected regression of the epidemic. From the outbreak of the epidemic to the first three quarters of 2021, the share price of aviation stocks is negatively correlated with the epidemic in China, that is, the mitigation of the epidemic drives the share price to rise. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the correlation between the two has weakened. Since the end of 2021, the number of newly diagnosed covid-19 in the world and China has increased significantly, but the share price of aviation stocks has risen sharply. Behind this, the mortality of Omicron has decreased significantly, and investors expect the epidemic to subside and the aviation industry to recover.
Where does the centralized transportation go? New balance between volume and price
The epidemic in the United States is serious, and the ports in the west of the United States are still congested, consuming a lot of effective transport capacity, and the freight rate remains high. However, the delivery time of global suppliers has begun to shorten and the production efficiency has improved, or it means that the efficiency of overseas inland logistics has begun to improve marginally. If the efficiency of inland logistics continues to improve, the congestion pressure at the port end is expected to ease compared with the current one, and promote the shipping link to achieve a new volume price balance. Considering that the price of the long-term agreement is expected to rise sharply in 2022, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) profit is expected to continue to grow compared with 2021.
What are the shipping opportunities for dangerous chemicals? Concentration improvement
The high threshold of coastal dangerous chemicals shipping brings high profits, Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) high incentives promote high growth. The transportation of dangerous liquid goods along the coast is strictly controlled, the threshold for new enterprises and new transportation capacity is high, and the profitability of the industry is strong. Under the requirements of safety and environmental protection, both sides of supply and demand promote the improvement of industry concentration. Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) as a leader in the industry, the company achieved share increase and high growth through ship purchase and shipbuilding.
Intelligent warehousing logistics development stage? Golden development period
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China’s high-end manufacturing industry is expected to maintain high-speed development, and the production process will develop in the direction of flexibility. It puts forward higher requirements for supporting warehousing logistics than before, and promotes the intelligent and automatic transformation of the logistics industry. In this process, we believe that high-quality 3PL is expected to move its value chain from simple operation to scheme design, Recommend Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , and relevant logistics equipment manufacturers will also benefit directly. Recommend Bluesword Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(688557) with excellent product power and long-term development potential.
Port investment logic? Undervalued value + rate rise
The port rate has rebounded slightly in 2021 and is expected to continue to rise in 2022. The demand for import and export of goods rebounded, driving the rise of port rates. In the first half of 2021, the revenue of single container (ton) of Shanghai Airlines Group and Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) rebounded. At the end of 2021, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai port and Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that the container rate would be increased in 2022. Considering the low valuation of some port companies, they already have investment value. Recommend Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) with high dividend and Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) with significant profit growth.
Risk tip: economic growth has fallen sharply, foreign trade growth has fallen sharply, the global epidemic has erupted again, and fuel prices have risen sharply
