\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
In 2021, the company's performance increased significantly, led by dual brands, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company released the performance forecast on January 21. In 2021, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.0-2.05 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 211.9-219.7%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.85-1.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 248.4-257.8%. Looking at 2021q4 alone, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 670-720 million, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4-84.1%. The performance is basically in line with the expectation. The profit forecast for 2021 is lowered and the profit forecast for 2022-2023 remains unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 is RMB 2.03/28.7/3.72 billion (the original value in 2021 is RMB 2.09 billion), corresponding to eps3.0 billion 6 / 5.0 / 6.5 yuan (the original value was 3.7 yuan in 2021). The current share price corresponds to 38.4 / 27.2 / 21.0 times of PE. Considering the dual brand leadership and obvious advantages of the company under the high climate of the clean electrical appliance industry, the "buy" rating remains unchanged.
The clean electrical circuit is booming, and the double brand hot sales trend has continued since 2022
Both Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Tianke brands are leading, and the industry share has increased steadily. According to ovicloud, in 2021, the online sales volume of China's floor sweeper industry was 9.9 billion yuan (+ 28.3%), and the market share of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand reached 45.0% (+ 4.1pcts); In 2021, the online sales volume of the floor washing machine industry was 4.89 billion yuan (+ 325.7%), and the market share of Tianke brand was 69.7% (+ 1.8pcts). Since 2022, domestic sales have continued the high growth trend. According to the business consultant, as of January 16, 2022, the cumulative Gmv of Alibaba channel Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand floor sweeper and Tianke brand floor washer was 73.3% and 35.8% respectively.
In 2022, there will be a strong demand for floor sweepers without hidden worries. The simple version of new self-cleaning products may drive high revenue growth
According to our calculation, the sales volume of self-cleaning products on China's floor sweepers online in 2021m11 accounts for 75%. In the first half of 2022, the company is expected to launch simple self-cleaning products to drive the release of demand. According to the calculation that the average price of 4000 yuan and the sales volume of self-cleaning products account for 70%, the sales volume of the company's floor sweepers is expected to be + 38% in 2022. There is no need for the market to worry too much. In addition, the company is expected to sell X1 Series in 2022. Compared with N9 +, the average price will still maintain a large increase.
The competitiveness of the new brand is limited, and the product experience and scale advantage of the land washing machine are obvious. It is optimistic that the share will increase steadily
In view of the market's concern about the intensified competition of floor washing machines, we believe that Tianke has occupied the minds of consumers, and the market does not need to worry too much: (1) Tianke has intergenerational leading advantages and good product experience. (2) When the low price strategy fails and the cost is on the high side, the new brand has high pricing and limited relative advantages. (3) The product form tends to be mature, the competitive advantage of brand power is more obvious, and Tianke has leading scale and more investment resources, which helps to consolidate the brand barrier.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Rising risk of raw materials; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
